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Comparing Feature and Trajectory-Based Remaining Useful Life Modeling of Electrical Resistance Heating Wires
Kanthal AB, Sweden; Mälardalens University, Sweden.
RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Materials and Production, Methodology, Textiles and Medical Technology. Mälardalens University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-1262-9143
Kanthal AB, Sweden .
Mälardalens University, Sweden.
2024 (English)In: Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society, PHM, Prognostics and Health Management Society , 2024, Vol. 16, no 1Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Industrial heating significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for a substantial portion of annual emissions. The transition to fossil-free operations in the heating industry is closely linked to advancements in industrial electrical heating systems, especially those using resistance heating wires. In this context, Prognostics and Health Management is crucial for enhancing system reliability and sustainability through predictive maintenance strategies. The integration of machine learning technologies into Prognostics and Health Management has significantly improved the precision and applicability of Remaining Useful Life modeling. This improvement enables more accurate predictions of component lifespans, optimizes maintenance schedules, and enhances operational efficiency in industrial heating applications. These developments are essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the sector. This paper serves as a guide for conducting Remaining Useful Life modeling for industrial batch processes. It evaluates and compares two methodologies: deep learning-based approaches using full time-series data, such as recurrent neural networks and their variants, and feature-engineering-based methods, including random forest regression and support vector machines. Our results show that the feature-oriented approach performs better overall in terms of predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. The study includes a detailed sensitivity analysis and hyperparameter estimation for each method, providing valuable insights into developing robust and transparent Prognostics and Health Management systems. These systems are crucial in supporting the heating industry’s move towards more sustainable and emission-free operations. The findings reveal that feature-oriented methods are both performant and robust, particularly excelling in handling outliers. The random forest regression model, in particular, demonstrated the highest performance on the test dataset according to the chosen evaluation metrics. Conversely, trajectory-oriented methods exhibited less bias across varying levels of degradation, a helpful characteristic for Prognostics and Health Management systems. While feature-oriented methods tend to systematically underestimate Remaining Useful Life at high true values and overestimate it at low actual values, this issue is less pronounced in trajectory-oriented models. Overall, these insights highlight the strengths and limitations of each approach, guiding the development of more effective and reliable predictive maintenance strategies.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Prognostics and Health Management Society , 2024. Vol. 16, no 1
Keywords [en]
Batch data processing; Diagnosis; Greenhouse gas emissions; Nuclear power plants; Recurrent neural networks; Support vector regression; Feature-oriented methods; Greenhouse gas emissions; Health management systems; Heating wire; Life models; Maintenance strategies; Predictive maintenance; Prognostic and health management; Random forests; Remaining useful lives; Predictive maintenance
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-76297DOI: 10.36001/phmconf.2024.v16i1.3913Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85210248759OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ri-76297DiVA, id: diva2:1924186
Conference
16th Annual Conference of the Prognostics and Health Management Society, PHM 2024. Nashville, USA. 10 November 2024 through 15 November 2024
Note

This research work has been funded by the Knowledge Foundation within the framework of the ARRAY (Grant Number 20170214) and INDTECH (Grant Number 20200132) Research School projects, participating companies and,Malardalen University. The authors also give their thanks to the RISE internal project DIGIPROD for supporting thiswork.

Available from: 2025-01-03 Created: 2025-01-03 Last updated: 2025-09-23Bibliographically approved

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Söderkvist Vermelin, Wilhelm

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