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Integrated Energy Systems Modeling with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Stakeholder Engagement for Identifying a Sustainable Energy Transition
University of Iceland, Iceland.
Reykjavik University, Iceland.
Australian National University, Australia.
Landsvirkjun The National Power Company of Iceland, Iceland.
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2024 (English)In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 17, no 17, article id 4266Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The aim of this paper is to present a decision support system (DSS) to capture the complexity of the transition of a national energy system to net zero in the context of multiple sustainability themes. The paper proposes an integrated assessment framework that combines dynamic systems modeling, sustainability indicators, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) with direct stakeholder involvement. To illustrate the use of the DSS, the paper compares bundles of climate change policies that aim to decarbonize the road transport sector in Iceland. Eighteen scenarios and alternative development trajectories are defined for the Icelandic energy system based on a combination of three main driving forces. These are, firstly, economic development (three cases); secondly, changes in energy efficiency (two cases); and finally, three climate policy bundles aimed at increasing the share of electric vehicles. Based on the results from the integrated assessment framework, the performance scores of the climate policy bundles are compared across the following five sustainability themes: social impact; economic development; environmental impact; energy security; and technical aspects. The findings confirm that a different conclusion may be reached when multiple sustainability themes are applied in the selection of preferred policy bundles as compared to conventional techno-economic criteria. Banning the registration of fossil-fueled vehicles, combined with economic instruments, offers the best decarbonizing strategy to reach climate and energy policy goals simultaneously. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) , 2024. Vol. 17, no 17, article id 4266
Keywords [en]
Carbon capture and utilization; Sustainable development goals; Decision supports; Energy; Energy systems; Low carbon transport; Multi-criteria decision analysis; Stakeholder engagement; Support systems; Sustainability indicators; Sustainable energy development; System dynamics modelling; Zero-carbon
National Category
Environmental Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-75646DOI: 10.3390/en17174266Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85203622847OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ri-75646DiVA, id: diva2:1910116
Note

This research was funded by the Icelandic Centre for Research, grant number: 163464-051.

Available from: 2024-11-04 Created: 2024-11-04 Last updated: 2025-09-23Bibliographically approved

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Shafiei, Ehsan

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