Fire Risk Model for Fires in Ro-Ro Ship Ro-Ro SpacesShow others and affiliations
2024 (English)In: Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, ISSN 2210-8491, Vol. 14, no 3, p. 333-355Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
In recent years, fire accidents on Ro-Ro ships have led to numerous fatalities and significant economic losses. The response of the crew and the ship's protection systems are crucial in managing these incidents and mitigating their consequences. To assess fire safety improvements, this study has focused on developing and quantifying a risk model that captures the dynamics of a fire starting in a Ro-Ro space. Various risk modelling techniques were reviewed to construct the model, which was then quantified using historical data, simulations, and expert judgments. A Delphi-based, fully digital approach to expert elicitation was introduced, utilizing Microsoft Teams and Microsoft Excel-based questionnaires. This method ensured full anonymity for the experts, reducing the risk of group bias and eliminating the need for travel. To enhance understanding and verify the results, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed. They revealed that the potential loss of life deviated, with 90% confidence, from the calculated mean value by less than 26%. Overall, the questionnaire-based method proved effective for expert elicitation and for quantifying nodes in the risk model, demonstrating its utility in the risk assessment process.
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 14, no 3, p. 333-355
Keywords [en]
Fire Risk Model; Ro-Ro Ships; Quantification; Expert Judgement; Questionnaire
National Category
Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-75669DOI: 10.54560/jracr.v14i3.503OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ri-75669DiVA, id: diva2:1902642
Note
The research presented has been financed as part of the LASH FIRE project (Legislative Assessment for Safety Hazards of Fire and Innovations in Ro-Ro Ship Environment, www.lashfire.eu), funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 814975.
2024-10-022024-10-022025-09-23Bibliographically approved