Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Fire Risk Model for Fires in Ro-Ro Ship Ro-Ro Spaces
RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Safety and Transport, Fire and Safety.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9432-0264
RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Safety and Transport, Fire and Safety.
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore, France.
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore, France.
Show others and affiliations
2024 (English)In: Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, ISSN 2210-8491, Vol. 14, no 3, p. 333-355Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In recent years, fire accidents on Ro-Ro ships have led to numerous fatalities and significant economic losses. The response of the crew and the ship's protection systems are crucial in managing these incidents and mitigating their consequences. To assess fire safety improvements, this study has focused on developing and quantifying a risk model that captures the dynamics of a fire starting in a Ro-Ro space. Various risk modelling techniques were reviewed to construct the model, which was then quantified using historical data, simulations, and expert judgments. A Delphi-based, fully digital approach to expert elicitation was introduced, utilizing Microsoft Teams and Microsoft Excel-based questionnaires. This method ensured full anonymity for the experts, reducing the risk of group bias and eliminating the need for travel. To enhance understanding and verify the results, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed. They revealed that the potential loss of life deviated, with 90% confidence, from the calculated mean value by less than 26%. Overall, the questionnaire-based method proved effective for expert elicitation and for quantifying nodes in the risk model, demonstrating its utility in the risk assessment process.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 14, no 3, p. 333-355
Keywords [en]
Fire Risk Model; Ro-Ro Ships; Quantification; Expert Judgement; Questionnaire
National Category
Mechanical Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-75669DOI: 10.54560/jracr.v14i3.503OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ri-75669DiVA, id: diva2:1902642
Note

The research presented has been financed as part of the LASH FIRE project (Legislative Assessment for Safety Hazards of Fire and Innovations in Ro-Ro Ship Environment, www.lashfire.eu), funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 814975. 

Available from: 2024-10-02 Created: 2024-10-02 Last updated: 2025-09-23Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

fulltext(1252 kB)160 downloads
File information
File name FULLTEXT01.pdfFile size 1252 kBChecksum SHA-512
6cb868ebb4819e8f620ddf311557ddfbfd7ac250dcb46776a98d48fa3f94f5486a2a220f462ca9d5defce8086efe6f38a709220bdee31e60813da1ec290928cf
Type fulltextMimetype application/pdf

Other links

Publisher's full texthttps://jracr.com/index.php/jracr/article/view/503

Authority records

Dahlbom, SixtenEvegren, Franz

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Dahlbom, SixtenEvegren, Franz
By organisation
Fire and Safety
Mechanical Engineering

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar
Total: 160 downloads
The number of downloads is the sum of all downloads of full texts. It may include eg previous versions that are now no longer available

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 334 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf