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Interpretable machine learning for predicting the fate and transport of pentachlorophenol in groundwater
RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Bioeconomy and Health, Agriculture and Food. Lund University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0513-5495
Lund University, Sweden.
Lund University, Sweden.
SMHI, Sweden.
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2024 (English)In: Environmental Pollution, ISSN 0269-7491, E-ISSN 1873-6424, Vol. 345, article id 123449Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Pentachlorophenol (PCP) is a commonly found recalcitrant and toxic groundwater contaminant that resists degradation, bioaccumulates, and has a potential for long-range environmental transport. Taking proper actions to deal with the pollutant accounting for the life cycle consequences requires a better understanding of its behavior in the subsurface. We recognize the huge potential for enhancing decision-making at contaminated groundwater sites with the arrival of machine learning (ML) techniques in environmental applications. We used ML to enhance the understanding of the dynamics of PCP transport properties in the subsurface, and to determine key hydrochemical and hydrogeological drivers affecting its transport and fate. We demonstrate how this complementary knowledge, provided by data-driven methods, may enable a more targeted planning of monitoring and remediation at two highly contaminated Swedish groundwater sites, where the method was validated. We evaluated 6 interpretable ML methods, 3 linear regressors and 3 non-linear (i.e., tree-based) regressors, to predict PCP concentration in the groundwater. The modeling results indicate that simple linear ML models were found to be useful in the prediction of observations for datasets without any missing values, while tree-based regressors were more suitable for datasets containing missing values. Considering that missing values are common in datasets collected during contaminated site investigations, this could be of significant importance for contaminated site planners and managers, ultimately reducing site investigation and monitoring costs. Furthermore, we interpreted the proposed models using the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) approach to decipher the importance of different drivers in the prediction and simulation of critical hydrogeochemical variables. Among these, sum of chlorophenols is of highest significance in the analyses. Setting that aside from the model, tetra chlorophenols, dissolved organic carbon, and conductivity found to be of highest importance. Accordingly, ML methods could potentially be used to improve the understanding of groundwater contamination transport dynamics, filling gaps in knowledge that remain when using more sophisticated deterministic modeling approaches. © 2024 The Authors

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd , 2024. Vol. 345, article id 123449
Keywords [en]
Chlorophenols; Environmental Pollution; Groundwater; Pentachlorophenol; chlorophenol; ground water; pentachlorophenol; chemistry; pollution
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-72775DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2024.123449Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85185169504OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ri-72775DiVA, id: diva2:1857834
Note

This research was financially supported by the Åke och Greta Lissheds Foundation, and by the Swedish Wallenberg AI, Autonomous Systems and Software Program (WASP) funded by the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation.

Available from: 2024-05-14 Created: 2024-05-14 Last updated: 2025-09-23Bibliographically approved

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Naseri Rad, Mehran

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