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Agent-Based Model for Long-Term Price Scenarios of Frequency Regulation Services
RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Safety and Transport, Measurement Technology.ORCID iD: 0009-0009-1543-6716
RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Safety and Transport, Measurement Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5415-1715
2026 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This report presents the design, implementation, and validation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) developed for long-term price scenario generation of Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR) services in the Nordic power system. The ABM simulates the Nordic day-ahead spot market through 11 meta-agents whose bidding behaviour is learned from 2019 historical data via feedforward neural networks. The model is coupled with a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) that translates the simulated spot prices—together with LMA2021 scenario variables—into long-term price trajectories for FCR-N, FCR-D up, and FCR-D down through 2050. Results for the 2045 scenario horizon show that the ABM-supported TFT produces forecasts that closely track LMA2021 benchmarks while exhibiting substantially lower variance and fewer extreme price events, particularly for FCR-D up. The coupled pipeline is evaluated under the Elektrifiering förnybart (EF) and Elektrifiering planerbart (EP) scenarios, with FCR-N showing the tightest alignment between approaches. Key limitations include the use of pre-pandemic training data, hourly temporal resolution, and potential error propagation across the coupled models.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2026. , p. 29
Series
RISE Rapport ; 2026:50
Keywords [en]
FCR-N, FCR-D, ABM, TFT, ML, Long-term, Forecasts, Scenarios
National Category
Electrical Engineering, Electronic Engineering, Information Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-81476ISBN: 978-91-90109-79-3 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ri-81476DiVA, id: diva2:2056115
Available from: 2026-04-28 Created: 2026-04-28 Last updated: 2026-04-28

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Eriksson, Markus XRolfes, Jan Hendrik

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910111213141512 of 22
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf