Large transport aircraft are particularly susceptible to impact damage from runway debris thrown up by the landing gear. A methodology was developed to predict the trajectories of stones lofted by the nose wheel and subjected to aerodynamic forces due to the wake behind the nose landing gear and beneath the aircraft. In conjunction with finite element modelling of the stone/ground/tyre contact mechanics, an analytical model was used to perform a stochastic prediction of the trajectories of runway stones to generate impact threat maps which showed the relative likelihood of stones impinging upon various areas on the underside of a C-130 Hercules. The impact envelopes for the C-130 extended three to eighteen metres behind the nose wheel and two metres either side of the centre of the aircraft. The impact threat maps were especially sensitive to the values of the coefficients of lift and drag acting on the stone during its flight.