The Forward-Looking Analysis portion of the AERTOs Bio-Based Economy project seeks to develop contextual, exploratory analysis that helps the participating research institutes better evaluate their bioeconomy strategies. The analysis takes a 15-20 year perspective and focuses on the level of the bioeconomy, rather than on specific technologies or biorefinery concepts.

The analysis contends that RTOs and their industrial partners should consider the uncertainties of the future bioeconomy at different levels – The World and Sustainability, Europe and the Bioeconomy, and the RTOs and Industry – and through the lenses of three alternative logics.

The logic of environmental sustainability pushes the bioeconomy and its component technologies in the direction of large scale, efficiently incentivized substitution of fossil-based emissions through bio-based alternatives, benefiting biofuel production and creating opportunities for RTOs to take a leadership role in their work to make industrial bioeconomy more sustainable.

The logic of competitive innovation pushes countries and companies to search for defensible advantages in the bioeconomy. The scale of fossil substitution is smaller but the margins for successful companies are higher, and advanced bio-based materials and chemicals are a dynamic sector for investment. The RTOs have a smaller role and work increasingly on product performance issues.

The logic of resource utilization sees countries and companies working to maximize the value of existing assets, particularly natural biomass endowments. The bioeconomy is driven primarily through national strategies and the Forest Biorefinery creates national champions in the Nordics. RTOs have a stable workflow and focus on increasing the efficiency of biorefinery systems.

Uncertainties related to the quantitative boundaries of the future bioeconomy can be assessed through a review of scenario literature on biomass availability, biofuels and bio-based chemicals production. There is a wide range of estimates available, but central estimates suggest that potential supply of sustainable biomass to industry could exceed demand by 70% in the long-term. Pressures created by changes at the margin of markets and through regional variations may nonetheless make realizing this potential difficult. Pathways applying the logic of environmental sustainability, to the extent that it generates common standards, will likely reduce supply-side risks.

Because the transition to a bio-based economy will occur stepwise, accusations of ‘greenwashing’ may plague early bio-based products and strategies if they are not fully-fossil free or certified sustainable. Nonetheless these first attempts may also generate positive awareness and will need to continue in interplay with the development of standards and certifications. Pathways applying the logic of competitive innovation are likely to be those that create incentives for greenwashing and reputational risks to the bioeconomy.

Uncertainties about feedstocks and technology costs have made feedstock flexibility a topic of interest in biorefinery development. Here, too, multiple concepts exist, from modular concepts that are truly feedstock agnostic to robust concepts designed to handle heterogeneity within a narrower feedstock basis. Once again the logical pathway applied will be likely to influence the approach to feedstock flexibility.