The continuous casting (CC) mould may appear very peaceful when viewed from above, but the powder bed hides relentless fluctuations in the following phenomena: metal flow, thermal gradients, chemical reactions and multiple phase transformations. When observed separately, some of these phenomena seem to have a 'simple behaviour', which may appear easy to control through the main casting parameters (e.g. casting speed, pouring temperature and powder type) and associated control systems (e.g. mould level control, automatic powder feeding and mould oscillation). However, when combined, these phenomena exhibit periodic fluctuations in behaviour, which is both difficult to predict and control. For instance, the combination of casting speed, submerged entry nozzle design and slab size can cause the metal flow pattern to shift from double roll to single roll and back, which can cause unstable fluctuations in metal level, standing waves, etc. In this respect, the CC process closely resembles a meteorological system where both variations and local fluctuations in temperature, humidity, pressure, etc., can result in effects that are difficult to predict in the long term. This is equivalent to the famous Lorenz premise: 'Does the flap of a butterfly's wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?' In this paper, we give some examples of the 'butterfly effect' in CC discussed below by using a mathematical model able to predict the slab solidification inside the mould in which various factors affecting the process stability are analysed and the probable sources of fluctuation are identified. © 2012 Institute of Materials, Minerals and Mining.