Humanity is transgressing planetary boundaries at an accelerating pace. Resource extractionand processing are among the main drivers of climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation,and water stress. The International Resource Panel estimates that global resource useis increasing by over 2% annually and could rise by nearly 60% between 2020 and 2060 if nocorrective action is taken. High-income countries use six times more materials per capita, andcause ten times more climate impacts per capita, than low-income countries.
Staying within ecological limits requires not only greater efficiency but also absolutereductions in material use and consumption, supported by systemic change.
The circular economy (CE) is widely promoted as a pathway to address our unsustainableresource use and reduce pressures on natural systems. In the recently published ISO standardon CE it is also stated that CE should aim to keep the inflow of virgin resources as low as possibleand flows of resources as closed as possible. In the implementation of CE, there is emphasison reuse, repair, remanufacturing, and recycling, and these circular strategies are increasinglyembedded in European policy.
Yet CE strategies are not currently linked to absolute, binding targets for sustainableresource use.
Unlike climate policy, the CE lacks clear and measurable targets determining the scale andspeed of the needed resource use reduction, which in turn creates risks of rebound effectsand fragmented implementation of policies, and ultimately missing the full potential of CE tocontribute to sustainability goals.
This report provides a concise overview of the literature and policy landscape on linking planetaryboundaries to resource use targets for the CE. It reviews EU policy developments, emerginginternational proposals, and the implications for circular business models.Key insights include:
• Current gaps in CE policy: European Union (EU) policy frameworks (Green Deal, CE ActionPlan, 8th Environmental Action Programme) stress resource efficiency but stop short ofsetting binding targets. Existing targets are largely aspirational, efficiency focused, relativeto GDP, or limited to waste and recycling.
• Business relevance: Targets provide long-term certainty and drive innovation, as shownin climate policy. Circular business models often request resource targets, seeing them asenablers for scaling solutions. However, allocation of resource space, linked to planetaryboundaries, at the company level remains unresolved.
• Indicators and monitoring: Dozens of CE indicators exist (e.g., Circularity Gap, SystemsChange Lab), yet most measure relative circularity rather than providing alignment withecological ceilings. There are also data gaps, and more data will be needed to enable theuse of some indicators.
• Proposals in literature and practice: Scholars and NGOs call for absolute caps, such asreducing EU material footprint to 5 tonnes per capita by 2050. National governments (e.g.,Netherlands, France, Finland) have adopted reduction targets, but few are binding in nature.
• Planetary boundaries and SDGs: The planetary boundaries provide science-based thresholds,highlighting the need for absolute limits to resource use. However, translating globalboundaries into sectoral, national, and corporate targets remains methodologically challenging.Similarly, the SDGs currently lack operational thresholds. Integrating resource usetargets into the post-2030 SDG framework could strengthen global coherence, especially inrelation to justice and equitable resource distribution.
Recommendations:
1. Integrate planetary boundaries into CE monitoring frameworks, ensuring indicatorsreflect absolute ecological limits.
2. Adopt binding EU resource use targets, analogous to climate targets, to providedirectionality and policy coherence.
3. Ensure policy coherence by systematically linking CE, climate, biodiversity, andindustrial policy, avoiding silo approaches and ensuring consistency across targets.
4. Support business implementation through harmonised standards (e.g., the ISO59004 series), consistent reporting requirements, and procurement-driven marketcreation.
5. Develop methodologies for downscaling planetary boundaries to national, sectoral,and corporate levels, building on work by the Science Based Targets Network andrelated research.6. Integrate resource use targets explicitly into the SDG framework post-2030, withglobal targets for material footprint reduction.
7. Incorporate sufficiency, fairness, and resilience into target-setting, ensuringhigh-income countries strive for reduced excess consumption while enabling resourceaccess for those in need.The experience of climate policy demonstrates that setting ambitious, binding targets is apowerful lever for transformative change.
Resource use targets, if grounded in planetary boundaries and linked to CE strategies,can guide the
The project is led by RISE with the participation from IIIEE at Lund University, Cirkelar, Volvo Cars and Ragn-Sells. The project is funded by Sweden’s innovation agency Vinnova, project number 2024-03427.