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Publications (10 of 17) Show all publications
Thapa, S., Bouras, E. H., Olsson, P.-O., Alexandersson, E., Roitsch, T., Albertsson, J., . . . Eklundh, L. (2026). Precision monitoring of leaf area index and chlorophyll content of major field crops in Northern Europe using UAV remote sensing and radiative transfer modeling. Precision Agriculture, 27(5)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Precision monitoring of leaf area index and chlorophyll content of major field crops in Northern Europe using UAV remote sensing and radiative transfer modeling
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2026 (English)In: Precision Agriculture, ISSN 1385-2256, E-ISSN 1573-1618, Vol. 27, no 5Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Purpose: Long-term monitoring of crop biophysical and biochemical traits remains challenging in high-latitude regions due to short growing seasons, frequent cloud cover, and highly variable weather. In this context, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) offer flexible, high-resolution observations, but their added value relative to low-cost proximal sensors and their effectiveness for radiative transfer model (RTM) inversion across diverse crop canopies remain insufficiently quantified. This study evaluated the potential of a two-band proximal spectral reflectance sensor (SRS) and a five-band multispectral UAV sensor for retrieving leaf area index (LAI), leaf chlorophyll content (LCC), and canopy chlorophyll content (CCC) using PROSAIL inversion across major crops in Northern Europe over two growing seasons (2023–2024). Methods and Results: Two inversion approaches – look-up table (LUT) and artificial neural network (ANN) were applied to PROSAIL simulations. UAV–PROSAIL–ANN outperformed LUT-based inversion and SRS observations, achieving the highest accuracy for LAI (R2 = 0.81–0.95; RMSE = 0.27–0.77 m2/m2), followed by CCC (R2 = 0.58–0.94; RMSE < 60 μg/cm2), while LCC remained less accurately estimated (R2 = 0.26–0.78; RMSE < 16 μg/cm2). Across sensors and methods, retrieval accuracy decreased in the order of LAI, CCC, and LCC, reflecting the stronger spectral control of canopy structure compared to biochemical traits. Conclusions: The UAV–PROSAIL–ANN framework effectively captured spatial and temporal variability in crop traits, producing canopy-scale maps consistent with field observations. These results demonstrate the robustness and scalability of hybrid PROSAIL–ANN inversion for high-latitude crop monitoring, while highlighting current limitations in biochemical trait retrieval using multispectral data

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer Nature, 2026
Keywords
Chlorophyll content, Leaf area index, Precision agriculture, PROSAIL inversion, Radiative transfer modeling, UAV remote sensing
National Category
Geophysics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-82610 (URN)10.1007/s11119-026-10403-z (DOI)2-s2.0-105047492578 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding text: Open access funding provided by Lund University. This research was funded by NordForsk (grant no. 136986 Upscaling crop performance monitoring by linking satellite and field biosignatures), the Swedish National Space Board (grant no. 2020\u201300138 Monitoring of crop growth for prognostic yield assessment using Sentinel-2 MSI data), and by Lund university for supplementary funding of salaries to Shangharsha Thapa and Lars Eklundh.

Funding details: Lunds Universitet, LU; NordForsk, (136986 Upscaling crop performance monitoring by linking satellite and field biosignatures); NordForsk; Swedish National Space Agency, SNSA, (2020–00138 Monitoring of crop growth for prognostic yield assessment using Sentinel-2 MSI data); Swedish National Space Agency, SNSA

Available from: 2026-09-01 Created: 2026-09-01 Last updated: 2026-09-01Bibliographically approved
Hörteborn, A., Sha, Y., Ringsberg, J. W., Lundbäck, O. & Mao, W. (2026). Risk analysis methodology for ship-bridge allisions – A combined probability and consequence analysis. Engineering structures, 347, 121731-121731, Article ID 121731.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Risk analysis methodology for ship-bridge allisions – A combined probability and consequence analysis
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2026 (English)In: Engineering structures, ISSN 0141-0296, E-ISSN 1873-7323, Vol. 347, p. 121731-121731, article id 121731Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Ship-bridge allision risk assessments often address either probability or consequence; integrations of both in a unified methodology are rare. This paper fills that gap by introducing Ship Traffic Allision Probability using Monte Carlo Simulations – consequence (STAPS-cons), a methodology where a mid-fidelity simulation methodology developed for probability assessment is used together with the results of Finite Element Analysis (FEA) simulations to include consequence assessments. Using Automatic Information System (AIS) data and the proposed methodology, a potential bridge over Norway’s Bjørnafjorden is analysed in a case study to determine the risk of structural collapse. The case study also illustrates how the risk is affected by different input parameters, both related to probability and consequence estimations. Five scenarios were analysed in this case study; three passed and two failed the Norwegian criterion for the probability of structural collapse, which is less frequent than 10−4 per year. A 20 % increase in the duration of a ship’s miss of turning point notably raised both the allision frequencies and the necessary levels of energy the bridge must withstand. In another scenario, where a less stiff bridge structure was analysed, the demand on the global structure decreased. In conclusion, the STAPS-cons methodology represents a significant advancement in the field of ship-bridge allision risk assessment. By integrating probability and consequence assessments, this methodology offers a more robust and comprehensive tool for managing the risks associated with increased shipping traffic and bridge construction in navigational waters.

Keywords
Automatic identification system dataMaritime risk analysisAllisionsMonte Carlo simulations
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-79157 (URN)10.1016/j.engstruct.2025.121731 (DOI)
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration
Available from: 2025-11-20 Created: 2025-11-20 Last updated: 2025-11-25Bibliographically approved
Rogerson, S., Hörteborn, A., Holm, H. & Strokirk, C. (2025). Fritidsbåtars laddbehov – avrapportering av projektet FRITIDSLADD. RISE Research Institutes of Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Fritidsbåtars laddbehov – avrapportering av projektet FRITIDSLADD
2025 (Swedish)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Charging needs of leisure boats – possibilities to use analysis of AIS data The project FRITIDSLADD developed methods for using data from AIS-B, e.g. segmentation algorithms. The starting point was that analysis of AIS-B data would provide opportunities to include smaller boats in AIS analyses. It was investigated how AIS-B can be used to map recreational boats' usage patterns. This report describes the work that has been carried out. AIS-B data has been made available for analysis. Application was tested with analysis of usage patterns in terms of speed, mileage and length of stay in port for two ports on the west coast. The report also describes several challenges related to data quality regarding AIS-B. Overall, transmitter power, refresh rate, antenna height and geography mean that data from Class B is less reliable than for Class A. For analysis of traffic patterns, this means that you cannot always rely on the accuracy of positions for a particular boat. At the end of the report, suggestions are made for further in-depth study.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, 2025
Series
RISE Rapport ; 2025:135
Keywords
AIS data, leisure boats
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-80119 (URN)978-91-90109-29-8 (ISBN)
Available from: 2026-01-13 Created: 2026-01-13 Last updated: 2026-01-13Bibliographically approved
Hörteborn, A., Ringsberg, J. W., Lundbäck, O. & Mao, W. (2025). Probabilistic analysis of ship-bridge allisions when designing bridges. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Article ID 111026.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Probabilistic analysis of ship-bridge allisions when designing bridges
2025 (English)In: Reliability Engineering & System Safety, ISSN 0951-8320, E-ISSN 1879-0836, article id 111026Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

The advances in civil engineering with novel bridge designs between islands and across fjords with long spans, increasing ship traffic density and larger ships in coastal areas, have resulted in an increased frequency of ship-bridge allision accidents worldwide. It is thus essential to have reliable models and methods for engineers to create safe designs of these new bridges to simulate and analyse early pro-active mitigation measures. This study presents a new ship traffic allision probabilistic simulation mid fidelity model (STAPS), which includes a ship's manoeuvrability and motion physics and uses the Monte Carlo simulation method in the probabilistic calculations. It is compared with the low fidelity model IWRAP Mk2, which is used to analyse the risk of ship allisions with structures. Two case studies with ship-allision scenarios are presented to compare how the model fidelity levels of STAPS and IWRAP Mk2 affect the calculated probability levels of ship-bridge allision events. On a general level, the results show that IWRAP Mk2 overestimates the accident probability, for example IWRAP Mk2 predicts a 4.5 times higher probability of allisions compared to STAPS in the base case, and that the failure's duration and route layouts significantly influence both models. The study concludes that IWRAP Mk2 is preferred in the early phase of bridge design and STAPS is preferred in later stages.

Keywords
Monte Carlo simulationprobabilistic analysisship-bridge collisionship manoeuvring
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-78258 (URN)10.1016/j.ress.2025.111026 (DOI)
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration
Available from: 2025-03-14 Created: 2025-03-14 Last updated: 2025-09-23Bibliographically approved
Hörteborn, A. & Eidem, M. E. (2025). Probability of active navigational failures: incident analyses for use in ship-bridge allision risk assessments. Journal of navigation (Print)
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Probability of active navigational failures: incident analyses for use in ship-bridge allision risk assessments
2025 (English)In: Journal of navigation (Print), ISSN 0373-4633, E-ISSN 1469-7785Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper studies the probability of active navigational error events for use in ship-bridge allision risk analysis. To estimate the probability of these kinds of events, accident databases, incident reports and AIS data were studied; the case studies herein cover 6 years and 15 bridges in Scandinavia. The main findings of this paper show that there is great variation in the probability of ship-bridge allision due to active navigational errors, and it is not recommended to use the currently common practice of 2% uniform distribution of the number of ship passages on all bridges. Another important finding is that the probability of a ship striking a bridge due to the error type Wrong Course at a Turning point is not uniform along the length of the bridge, but is only likely to occur in a cone formation from the last turning point.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge University Press, 2025
Keywords
AIS, navigation, risk, ship collision
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Infrastructure Engineering Other Engineering and Technologies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-79206 (URN)10.1017/S0373463325101100 (DOI)2-s2.0-105013332789 (Scopus ID)
Note

Article; Granskad

Available from: 2025-11-25 Created: 2025-11-25 Last updated: 2025-11-25Bibliographically approved
Hörteborn, A. & Eidem, M. E. (2025). Probability of active navigational failures: incident analyses for use in ship-bridge allision risk assessments. Journal of navigation (Print), 78(2-3), 171-189
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Probability of active navigational failures: incident analyses for use in ship-bridge allision risk assessments
2025 (English)In: Journal of navigation (Print), ISSN 0373-4633, E-ISSN 1469-7785, Vol. 78, no 2-3, p. 171-189Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper studies the probability of active navigational error events for use in ship–bridge allision risk analysis. To estimate the probability of these kinds of events, accident databases, incident reports and AIS data were studied; the case studies herein cover 6 years and 15 bridges in Scandinavia. The main findings of this paper show that there is great variation in the probability of ship–bridge allision due to active navigational errors, and it is not recommended to use the currently common practice of 2% uniform distribution of the number of ship passages on all bridges. Another important finding is that the probability of a ship striking a bridge due to the error type Wrong Course at a Turning point is not uniform along the length of the bridge, but is only likely to occur in a cone formation from the last turning point.

Keywords
AIS, navigation, risk, ship allision
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-79405 (URN)10.1017/s0373463325101100 (DOI)
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration
Available from: 2025-12-01 Created: 2025-12-01 Last updated: 2025-12-03Bibliographically approved
Hörteborn, A. (2024). Allision modelling in IWRAP Mk II - A verification and sensitivity study. In: Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships and Offshore Structures, ICCGS 2023: . Paper presented at 9th International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships and Offshore Structures, ICCGS 2023. Nantes, France. 11 September 2023 through 13 September 2023 (pp. 51-58). CRC Press/Balkema
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Allision modelling in IWRAP Mk II - A verification and sensitivity study
2024 (English)In: Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships and Offshore Structures, ICCGS 2023, CRC Press/Balkema , 2024, p. 51-58Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Risk assessment is important both while planning to build new infrastructure and for maintenance of existing structures. The probability of ship-structure allisions could be estimated with IWRAP Mk II, which is a commonly used software for estimating maritime risks. However, the research coverage of the software is limited with regards to groundings and allisions. The aim of this study is to verify how IWRAP Mk II estimates the accident probability. To perform this verification a separate tool is constructed, OMRAT, based on the same theory as IWRAP Mk II. The aim is also to highlight the sensitivity of different parameters in these types of models. It is concluded that IWRAP Mk II estimates the probability of allisions and groundings with the same equations. Another conclusion is that some parameters have a linear effect on the accident probabilities and other parameters are also influenced by the model layout.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
CRC Press/Balkema, 2024
Keywords
Accidents; Risk perception; Accident probability; Existing structure; Maritime risks; Risks assessments; Sensitivity studies; Ship structure; Risk assessment
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-72913 (URN)10.1201/9781003462170-9 (DOI)2-s2.0-85185551540 (Scopus ID)
Conference
9th International Conference on Collision and Grounding of Ships and Offshore Structures, ICCGS 2023. Nantes, France. 11 September 2023 through 13 September 2023
Note

This work was financially supported by the Swedish Transport Administration and the Norwegian Public Road Administration.

Available from: 2024-04-26 Created: 2024-04-26 Last updated: 2025-09-23Bibliographically approved
Hörteborn, A. (2023). Allision modelling in IWRAP Mk II – A verification and sensitivity study: Chapter 8. In: Advances in the Collision and Grounding of Ships and Offshore Structures: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 9th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COLLISION AND GROUNDING OF SHIPS AND OFFSHORE STRUCTURES (ICCGS 2023), NANTES, FRANCE, 11-13 SEPTEMBER 2023. Paper presented at PROCEEDINGS OF THE 9th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COLLISION AND GROUNDING OF SHIPS AND OFFSHORE STRUCTURES (ICCGS 2023), NANTES, FRANCE, 11-13 SEPTEMBER 2023 (pp. 51-58). Paper presented at PROCEEDINGS OF THE 9th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COLLISION AND GROUNDING OF SHIPS AND OFFSHORE STRUCTURES (ICCGS 2023), NANTES, FRANCE, 11-13 SEPTEMBER 2023. CRC Press, 12
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Allision modelling in IWRAP Mk II – A verification and sensitivity study: Chapter 8
2023 (English)In: Advances in the Collision and Grounding of Ships and Offshore Structures: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 9th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COLLISION AND GROUNDING OF SHIPS AND OFFSHORE STRUCTURES (ICCGS 2023), NANTES, FRANCE, 11-13 SEPTEMBER 2023, CRC Press, 2023, Vol. 12, p. 51-58Chapter in book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Risk assessment is important both while planning to build new infrastructure and for maintenance of existing structures. The probability of ship-structure allisions could be estimated with IWRAP Mk II, which is a commonly used software for estimating maritime risks. However, the research coverage of the software is limited with regards to groundings and allisions. The aim of this study is to verify how IWRAP Mk II estimates the accident probability. To perform this verification a separate tool is constructed, OMRAT, based on the same theory as IWRAP Mk II. The aim is also to highlight the sensitivity of different parameters in these types of models. It is concluded that IWRAP Mk II estimates the probability of allisions and groundings with the same equations. Another conclusion is that some parameters have a linear effect on the accident probabilities and other parameters are also influenced by the model layout.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
CRC Press, 2023
National Category
Infrastructure Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-67120 (URN)10.1201/9781003462170 (DOI)9781003462170 (ISBN)
Conference
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 9th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COLLISION AND GROUNDING OF SHIPS AND OFFSHORE STRUCTURES (ICCGS 2023), NANTES, FRANCE, 11-13 SEPTEMBER 2023
Available from: 2023-09-19 Created: 2023-09-19 Last updated: 2025-09-23Bibliographically approved
Hörteborn, A. & Hassellöv, I.-M. (2023). Economic incentives and technological limitations govern environmental impact of LNG feeder vessels. Journal of Cleaner Production, 429, Article ID 139461.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Economic incentives and technological limitations govern environmental impact of LNG feeder vessels
2023 (English)In: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 429, article id 139461Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the transition to sustainable shipping, Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), is proposed to play a role, reducing emissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter. However, LNG is a fossil fuel and there is an ongoing discussion regarding the extent of methane slip from ships operating on LNG, challenging the assumptions of LNG as a sustainable solution. Here we show another aspect to consider in the environmental assessment of shipping; LNG feeder vessels may spend as much as 25% of their time at sea just running the ship to ensure the pressure in the tanks are not exceeded, i.e., run time not directly attributed to the shipment of gas from one port or ship, to another. In other words, the economic incentives are currently allowing for roughly 32% increase of the ships’ operational emissions and discharges and increased navigational risks. Most coastal areas are heavily affected by anthropogenic activities and e.g., in the Baltic Sea there is consensus among the HELCOM member states that the input of nutrient and hazardous substances must be reduced. Even if the LNG feeder vessels are currently few, the possibility to reduce their environmental impact by 32% should be an attractive opportunity for future policy measures and investigation of technological solutions of the problem. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd, 2023
Keywords
Environmental impact; Feeding; Fossil fuels; Gas emissions; Liquefied natural gas; Nitrogen oxides; Sustainable development; Economic incentive; Energy systems; Environment assessments; Liquified natural gas; Marine environment; Marine environment assessment; Particulate Matter; Reducing emissions; Sustainable solution; Technological limitations; Ships
National Category
Environmental Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-67925 (URN)10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139461 (DOI)2-s2.0-85175557152 (Scopus ID)
Note

The authors acknowledge the financial support from Hugo Hammar Foundation (Grant no. HHS- 297 and ML 112). The authors acknowledge the maintainers of the open-source GIS platform, QGIS.

Available from: 2023-11-27 Created: 2023-11-27 Last updated: 2025-09-23Bibliographically approved
Hörteborn, A. & Ringsberg, J. W. (2021). A method for risk analysis of ship collisions with stationary infrastructure using AIS data and a ship manoeuvring simulator. Ocean Engineering, 235, Article ID 109396.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A method for risk analysis of ship collisions with stationary infrastructure using AIS data and a ship manoeuvring simulator
2021 (English)In: Ocean Engineering, ISSN 0029-8018, E-ISSN 1873-5258, Vol. 235, article id 109396Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The study presents a methodology that uses AIS data and a ship manoeuvring simulator to simulate and analyse marine traffic schemes with regard to risks for accidents. An event identification method is presented, which is needed for the accident scenario part of the methodology. This is based on AIS data, where the Great Belt VTS area was used to verify the methodology. Three events that could result in ship-bridge allisions were modelled and simulated in the simulator: drifting ship, sharp turning ship and miss of turning point. The Monte Carlo method was used to perform large number of simulator runs, including a parameter sensitivity analysis. The probability of a ship allision against the Great Belt Bridge was calculated to be 0.007. Analysis of the ship-bridge allision cases was shown to be dominated by the event drifting ship. This event has a relatively low kinetic energy at the impact, and the expected allision energy for a 1,000-year allision corresponds to a 178 m tanker with 57,870 DWT and ship speed 14.6 knots. Finally, this study presents a mitigation analysis, which shows how the probability of allisions can be reduced by reducing the ship speed or altering the traffic separation scheme. © 2021 The Authors

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd, 2021
Keywords
AIS analysis, Allision energy, Event identification, Ship grounding, Ship manoeuvring simulator, Ship-bridge allision, Accidents, Kinetic energy, Kinetics, Monte Carlo methods, Risk analysis, Risk assessment, Sensitivity analysis, Simulators, AIS analyse, Energy, Ship collision, Ship maneuvering, Ship maneuvering simulator, Ship speed, Ships, bridge, collision avoidance, Monte Carlo analysis, navigation aid, ship handling, ship motion, tracking, transportation infrastructure
National Category
Vehicle and Aerospace Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-57267 (URN)10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109396 (DOI)2-s2.0-85109021547 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding details: HHI-133; Funding details: 2016-04767; Funding details: Interreg; Funding details: Statens vegvesen; Funding text 1: The authors acknowledge the financial support from the Norwegian Public Roads Administration , The Hugo Hammar Foundation (Grant no. HHI-133 ), the Swedish Innovation Agency (Vinnova Grant no. 2016-04767 ) and the EU Interreg Öresund-Kattegat-Skagerrak project MARIA. The authors acknowledge the maintainers of the open source language Python and the packages available at www.pypi.org .; Funding text 2: The authors acknowledge the financial support from the Norwegian Public Roads Administration, The Hugo Hammar Foundation (Grant no. HHI-133), the Swedish Innovation Agency (Vinnova Grant no. 2016-04767) and the EU Interreg ?resund-Kattegat-Skagerrak project MARIA. The authors acknowledge the maintainers of the open source language Python and the packages available at www.pypi.org.

Available from: 2021-12-13 Created: 2021-12-13 Last updated: 2025-09-23Bibliographically approved
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ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-2451-3276

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