We investigated which demographic groups in Sweden are lagging in battery-electric vehicle (BEV) adoption and whether the deployed public charging infrastructure has contributed to reducing these gaps. Using high-resolution national registry data, we analyzed vehicle-age-adjusted BEV and PHEV ownership patterns across income levels, housing types, and access to charging. We found that low income and living in apartments are the strongest barriers to adoption, and that public charging availability has not significantly increased BEV uptake among apartment residents. Based on these findings, we recommend policies that lower public charging costs, strengthen incentives linked to vehicle use, improve charging access quality for apartment dwellers, and support retention of used BEVs in Sweden.

Several electric road system technologies that enable in-motion charging of electric vehicles are nearing market readiness. However, substantial contribution to decarbonization requires rapid deployment on an international scale. Investment is discouraged by prior research that has identified that declining battery costs may eventually leave the infrastructure a stranded asset. We explore under what circumstances electric roads offer effective and low-risk decarbonization of European heavy-duty road freight. Transport system dynamics are explored and quantified, through pairwise comparison of scenarios with and without electric road incorporation, using a purpose-built agent-based simulation (MOSTACHI). Prior stranded asset risks are confirmed, but we show that policy that encourages high electric road utilization can correct for market failures and make the infrastructure a no-regret investment in much of Europe – never yielding worse outcomes than not investing. Electric roads are shown to be an effective risk mitigation strategy, achieving market-driven phase-out of fossil fuels before 2050, also in pessimistic scenarios where static charging alone would be insufficient. Electric roads reduce levelized system cost by 0–17%, greenhouse gas emissions by 7–63% (2030 to 2050, cumulative) and battery mineral demand by 20–40%. Benefits are maximized with early and predictable deployment.

The research project “El för ännu fler” has explored how households in multi-unit dwellings without access to private parking can be included in the electrification of Sweden’s passenger car fleet. This target group lacks the ability to arrange private charging near home and is therefore dependent on public charging on street and neighbourhood land or at fast-charging stations. The term “public home-charging” was coined already in the project application to describe charging at or near home for this group.The project has developed a decision support tool for (primarily) the public sector, based on quantitative modelling which forecasts charging demand with high geographic resolution. An interactive web map visualizes the demand for charging from passenger cars without private parking per DeSO (Demographic Statistical Areas) until year 2050, taking into account factors such as demographics, housing type, driving distances, and charging behaviour. The map shows the need for public charging near home, but the project also concludes that there is no empirical evidence that such charging directly increases EV adoption. The project has also analysed costs and barriers to establishing charging infrastructure in urban environments. Results show that groundwork and grid connection are often the most cost-driving factors, especially for installations on street land. Average investment costs vary significantly, making profitability a challenge. A calculation tool has been developed to support stakeholders in cost assessments, based on data from the Klimatklivet funding program. Through interviews and surveys, the project has identified user behaviours and preferences among EV owners without home-charging. The study shows that these users perceive public charging as less convenient and flexible, and that charging often occurs strategically at low battery levels. The results suggest that charging infrastructure must be designed around users’ daily routines to be effective. Three detailed case studies in Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Strömstad have deepened the understanding of local variations in EV adoption. The studies show that factors such as housing type, socioeconomic status, parking structure, and municipal strategy influence adoption, and that municipalities play a key role in enabling charging near home. An international analysis has compared strategies for charging infrastructure expansion in Birmingham, Copenhagen, and Oslo. The project has contributed to FFI’s goals of a fossil-free and socially sustainable transport system by highlighting an underexplored user group, developing planning tools, and providing insights into user behaviour, cost structures, and international strategies. Continued research is needed on topics such as parking data, charging behaviour, and innovative solutions to ensure that electrification reaches even more people.

Projektet ”El för ännu fler” har undersökt hur hushåll i flerbostadshus utan tillgång till privat parkering kan inkluderas i elektrifieringen av Sveriges personbilsflotta. Denna målgrupp saknar rådighet att ordna egen laddning nära hemmet och är därför beroende av publik laddning på gatu- och kvartersmark eller vid snabbladdningsstationer. Begreppet ’publik hemmaladdning’ myntades redan vid projektansökan för att beskriva laddning vid eller nära hemmet för denna målgrupp.Projektet har utvecklat ett beslutsstöd för (primärt) offentlig sektor, baserat på kvantitativ modellering som prognostiserar laddbehov med hög geografisk upplösning. En interaktiv webbkarta visualiserar efterfrågan på laddning för personbilar utan privat parkering per DeSO (Demografiska statistikområden) fram till 2050, med hänsyn tillfaktorer som demografi, boendetyp, körsträckor och laddbeteende. Kartan visar behov av publik laddning i närheten av hemmet, men projektet konstaterar samtidigt att det saknas empiriskt stöd för att sådan laddning direkt ökar elbilsadoptionen.Projektet har också analyserat kostnader och hinder för etablering av laddinfrastruktur i stadsmiljö. Resultaten visar att markberedning och nätanslutning oftast är de mest kostnadsdrivande faktorerna, särskilt vid installation på gatumark. Genomsnittliga investeringskostnader varierar kraftigt, vilket gör lönsamhet till en utmaning. Ett kalkylverktyg har tagits fram för att stödja aktörer i kostnadsbedömningar, baserat på data från Klimatklivet.Genom intervjuer och enkäter har projektet identifierat användarbeteenden och preferenser hos elbilsägare utan hemmaladdning. Studien visar att dessa användare upplever publik laddning som mindre bekväm och flexibel, och att laddning ofta sker strategiskt vid låg batterinivå. Resultaten tyder på att laddinfrastruktur måste utformas utifrån användarnas vardagsrutiner för att vara effektiv.Tre detaljstudier i Stockholm, Göteborg och Strömstad har fördjupat förståelsen för lokala variationer i elbilsadoption. Studien visar att faktorer som boendeform, socioekonomi, parkeringsstruktur och kommunal strategi påverkar adoptionen, och att kommuner har en nyckelroll i att möjliggöra laddning nära hemmet.En internationell omvärldsanalys har jämfört strategier för utbyggnation av laddinfrastruktur i Birmingham, Köpenhamn och Oslo.Projektet har bidragit till FFI:s mål om ett fossilfritt och socialt hållbart transportsystem genom att belysa en underutforskad målgrupp, utveckla verktyg för planering och ge insikter om användarbeteenden, kostnadsstrukturer och internationella strategier. Fortsatt forskning behövs kring exempelvis parkeringsdata, laddbeteenden och innovativa lösningar för att säkerställa att elektrifieringen når ännu fler

The adoption rate of zero tailpipe emission road vehicles (ZEVs) is insufficient in Sweden and the EU for the 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets to be met. The average life length of internal combustion engines vehicles (ICEVs) is 10-17 years and there is a higher export rate of used EVs than ICEVs, two factors that essentially lock in a large portion of emissions for nearly two decades.

This pre-study explores the potentials and challenges of retrofitting of ICEVs with electric powertrains (E-retrofit), a complementary path to fleet decarbonization. It focuses on determining vehicle types and applications where conversion is cost-effective, environmentally beneficial, and technically feasible.

Today, E-retrofitting is a niche industry, foremost focused on special-purpose vehicles with costly bodywork or equipment, such as off-road machinery, city buses, fire trucks, and last-mile delivery vans. Classic cars with high affection values that have been e-retrofitted illustrate that E-retrofit is technically feasible, though these enthusiast conversions are typically performed at high economic cost per vehicle and with negligible impact on overall fleet emissions.

The E-retrofit process includes selecting a donor vehicle, calculating energy needs, assessing total cost of ownership, designing and installing an electric drivetrain, and re-certifying the vehicle for road use. Various stakeholders are involved in this process, including E-retrofit kit developers who can develop and sell generic or vehicle model specific solutions. However, there are significant technical and cost barriers, including the integration of proprietary OEM vehicle control units (VCUs), often requiring manual adjustments and software modifications. Existing ICEV architectures also complicate battery placement, potentially affecting range, weight distribution, and needs for reinforcements, making re- certification and homologation more complex.

Even with these challenges, E-retrofitting presents a significant opportunity. In addition to the potential to achieve a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions payback within just a few years, it helps conserve valuable materials and resources from donor vehicles, creates local jobs, and can accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels, contributing to improved energy independence and Europe’s trade balance, even if batteries are imported.

Results from this pre-study indicate that vehicle applications with a high utilization rate, including city buses, light commercial delivery vans and off-road machinery, show strong potential for economic, technical and environmental viability for E-retrofit, compared to continued ICEV use or new BEVs. Cars, which represent the bulk of EU road transport emissions, are at present challenging to E-retrofit economically.

Finally, we recommend further investigation into the inclusion of both used EVs and E-retrofitted vehicles in the upcoming Swedish EV incentive for 2026, along with legislative changes that would allow OEMs to account for E-retrofitted vehicles in their GHG reporting within the EU. Combined with more streamlined re-certification processes, these measures could help scale up E-retrofitting as a growing industry segment in Sweden.

This study assesses the potential for decarbonizing EU road transport through several pathways, focusing on the feasibility of achieving impact by 2035. Through comprehensive literature review, we compare the distance-levelized cost, lifecycle GHG emissions, and scalability of combustion engine vehicles (three fuels), battery-electric vehicles (BEVs, three charging methods), and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. We consider projected transport growth and the current age composition and use of vehicles in Europe, segmented into four regions. Biofuels, hydrogen, and e-fuels are not found to have potential to significantly contribute to further GHG emissions before 2035 due to scalability and technological limitations. BEVs emerge as the only viable strategy for achieving zero tailpipe emissions at scale, with effective lifecycle GHG reductions constrained by the rate of decarbonization of steel production, battery production and EU electricity production. By 2035, embodied battery emissions are expected to be the dominant source of lifecycle emissions from electric vehicles. The environmental benefits of a BEV transition are primarily limited by the rate at which the vehicle stock can be electrified, with new electric vehicle sales contributing primarily to decarbonization in Northen and Western Europe. Combining the expected buildout of static charging infrastructure with a proposed pan-European Electric Road System (ERS) network is found to greatly accelerate the transition to electrified road transport, including in otherwise late-to-decarbonize segments, by removing cost, weight, and supply barriers to retrofitting older combustion engine cars with new electric powertrains. Other effects of an ERS network are found to be substantially reduced embodied emissions from BEV production, resulting from reduced battery capacity per vehicle, and reduced levelized freight costs. However, possibly insurmountable political and bureaucratic barriers must be overcome ERS to play any meaningful part in decarbonization of road transport within the coming decade. If the barriers can be overcome, the economic and ecological rewards are substantial. Despite identifying pathways for substantial emissions reductions, the study does not identify any technical pathway through which the EU road transport sector will not greatly exceed its fair share of global GHG emissions. In addition, our review of strategies to achieve modal shift and road transport demand reductions also fails to find indications that interventions in these areas will have GHG reduction effects of desired magnitude within the required timeframe, unless costs of vehicle ownership and use are raised substantially. Further policy research is urgently needed to find repeatable and socially just interventions through which total transport work, the size of the vehicle stock and embodied GHG emissions per vehicle can be reduced substantially across the entire EU before 2035.

This report presents an analysis to forecast the utilization of a future electric road system (ERS) network in Sweden. The analysis, limited to ERS use by heavy trucks, focuses on how ERS utilization is expected to evolve under different network scopes and levels of pricing. In addition, the socio-economic impact of adding ERS to the Swedish charging mix is estimated, and sensitivity analysis is performed with regards to the availability of infrastructure for static charging and national policies about biofuel use.

The questions are answered through comparative simulations in MOSTACHI, a tool developed to study spatio-temporal system dynamics during transport electrification, with parameter assumptions aligned with the Swedish Transport Administration’s guidelines (ASEK8). The analysis covers ERS networks spanning from 1000 to 3000 km and outcomes are compared across a range of indicators, including ERS utilization, system costs, transport electrification, CO2 emissions, and demand for energy, biofuels and batteries.

Simulations suggest that economic-environmental benefits of a Swedish ERS network would be maximized when the dynamic charging fee is set low enough that 80-90% of within-network traffic would be given economic incentives to charge dynamically. With a higher fee differentiated by willingness to pay (WTP), and 70-80% utilization, the full investment cost could likely be recouped within 25 years. Viable pricing is approximately in the span between that of night-time depot charging and day-time public fast-charging. WTP for all types of charging declines over time. Simulated WTP for dynamic charging is observed to be greater along the E4 than on the Swedish west coast.

A 1500 km ERS network operational from 2035 is forecast to raise the electrified share of road freight within the network from 50% to 90% and reduce total remaining national ICET traffic by one third (e.g., 40% to 60%). The effect size at national scale is determined by the scope of the ERS network, with larger networks achieving greater impact. ERS impact on traffic outside the network is minor in the simulations. Rapid ubiquitous buildout of overnight charging for trucks is recommended regardless of and in addition to ERS investments.

The opportunity cost of not investing in ERS in Sweden is estimated at over four billion euro until 2050, or 300 million euro per year of delay. These opportunity cost estimates assume very cheap batteries, expensive ERS and quick expansion of static charging. Under assumed future EU biofuel policy, ERS is forecast to reduce cumulative Swedish CO2 emissions from heavy trucks until 2050 by approximately 8 Mt, with an emissions opportunity cost of approximately 300 kt per year of delay. If Sweden is on a path to electrify less than 50% of road freight by 2035, opportunity cost estimates increase.

Data have been published stating that of all heavy trucks (>16 ton) that drive at least 5 days per year on the main Swedish road network (Malmö-Göteborg-Stockholm), only 15% drive more than 50% of their annual mileage on this road network . Intuitively, this gives the impression that charging infrastructure placed on the main road network cannot contribute greatly to electrification of heavy trucks. Meanwhile, route-based simulation of charging preferences on the Swedish road network has concluded that if Electric Road Systems (ERS) infrastructure is deployed on the main Swedish road network, >95% of heavy traffic on this road network would have sufficient financial incentive to becomes users of the ERS charging infrastructure.

Assessment of the future energy and power demand for charging of road traffic, per Swedish county, municipality and type of charging infrastructure The report forecasts future needs for electrical energy and power for charging electric vehicles throughout Sweden, with a particular focus on Västra Götaland. Annual energy demand and peak loads are forecast per Swedish county and municipality. Load curves divided into different categories of charging infrastructure are presented for scenarios with and without load balancing from evening to night, as well as where a share of the energy for road transport is transferred via hydrogen or electric roads. The uncertainty in the forecasts is substantial around 2035, due to uncertainty about how fast electrification of road traffic will proceed. Factors affecting the rate of electrification include taxes and subsidies that affect the cost difference between owning electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles, electricity market price stability, crude oil prices and interest rates. The rate of electrification is also strongly influenced by the rate of expansion and pricing of charging infrastructure, where permits for new grid connections are a bottleneck for expansion. The report emphasizes the importance of achieving load balancing that redistributes vehicle charging from late afternoons to late evenings and nights, particularly within larger residential areas. Solving this challenge has a higher priority for the successful electrification of road transport than getting public fast charging stations in place, as charging at homes and truck depots form the backbone of an electrified road transport system. Challenges and opportunities with Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology are discussed. The report also highlights the uncertainty surrounding the future use of driverless vehicles and their potential impact on charging needs and traffic patterns. The forecasts indicate that the total electricity demand for road transport will be slightly lower in winter than in summer, due to reduced traffic work and despite increased energy consumption at low temperatures. Electric roads would only increase energy demand if contributing to a faster rate of electrification, while large-scale use of fuel cell trucks and locally produced hydrogen would increase energy demand in the long term by roughly 10% and in the short term more, if only replacing combustion engine vehicles. Large-scale use of synthetic gasoline and diesel produced from green hydrogen is considered unlikely, but would greatly increase energy demand as long as internal combustion engine vehicles are still in use.

Rapporten prognostiserar framtida behov av elektrisk energi och effekt för laddning av elektriska vägfordon i hela Sverige, med särskilt fokus på Västra Götaland. Årligt energibehov och topplast prognostiseras per län och kommun. Lastkurvor uppdelade på olika kategorier laddinfrastruktur presenteras för scenarier med och utan lastbalansering från kvällar till nätter, samt där en betydande andel av energin till vägtransporterna överförs via vätgas eller elvägar. Osäkerheten i prognoserna är stor kring 2035, på grund av osäkerhet kring hur snabbt elektrifieringen kommer att gå. Faktorer som påverkar elektrifieringstakten inkluderar skatter och subventioner som påverkar det relativa kostnadsläget mellan elfordon och förbränningsmotorfordon, elmarknadens prisstabilitet, råoljepriser och räntor. Elektrifieringstakten påverkas även starkt av utbyggnadstakt och prissättning av laddinfrastruktur, där tillstånd för nya nätanslutningar är en flaskhals för utbyggnad. Rapporten betonar vikten av att få till lastbalansering som omfördelar fordonsladdning från sena eftermiddagar till sena kvällar och nätter, särskilt inom större bostadsområden. Att lösa denna utmaning har högre prioritet för en framgångsrik elektrifiering av vägtrafiken än att få publika snabbladdarstationer på plats, eftersom laddning vid hem och lastbilsdepåer utgör stommen i ett elektrifierat vägtransportsystem. Utmaningar och möjligheter med Vehicle-to-Grid-teknik (V2G) diskuteras. Rapporten belyser också osäkerheten kring framtida användning av förarlösa fordon och deras potentiella påverkan på laddningsbehov och trafikmönster. Prognoserna indikerar att det sammanlagda energibehovet för laddning av vägtransporter blir något lägre vintertid än sommartid, på grund av minskad trafik och trots ökad energiförbrukning vid låga temperaturer. Elvägar skulle endast ge ett ökat energibehov om de bidrar till en snabbare elektrifieringstakt, medan en storskalig användning av bränslecellslastbilar och lokalt producerad vätgas skulle ge en ökning av energibehovet på lång sikt med drygt 10% och på kort sikt mer, om fordonen endast ersätter förbränningsmotorfordon. Storskalig användning av syntetisk bensin och diesel framställd från grön vätgas bedöms som osannolik, men skulle kraftigt öka energibehovet så länge förbränningsmotorfordon fortfarande används.

We present a novel methodology for calculating the density of charging infrastructure required to enable electrification of all passenger cars in a large geographic region. We combine this method with models of charging infrastructure cost, forecasts of levelized costs for operating combustion engine and battery electric cars and forecasts of market penetration, to calculate the socio-economic value of passenger car electrification over the 2020-2040 period. Recommendations for urban regions are derived based on application of the method to Stockholm County, Sweden. Electrification is shown to generate long-term savings of up to 1800 euro per car-year and the opportunity cost of delaying the transition by a single year is comparable to the full cost of deploying the infrastructure that enables the shift. Large-scale deployment of dynamic charging is a cost-viable alternative to static charging for full electrification of urban passenger car fleets.

This report explores complex interaction effects between diesel-powered and battery powered heavy trucks, dynamic vehicle charging via electric roads, and static charging via other forms of charging infrastructure. The aim is to identify how these components of the future transport system should be jointly designed to simultaneously minimize the cost to society at the system level and meet society's need for greatly reduced greenhouse gas emissions from heavy road traffic. Focus is on investigating how an expansion of electric roads would affect the system and whether a national investment in electric roads can be assumed to have positive consequences that cannot be achieved at a lower cost using other means. Interaction effects are studied over time (2020–2050), geography (the entire Swedish road network), for four different truck weight classes and four types of charging infrastructure (electric roads, depot charging, destination charging and fast charging at rest stops).

The results are based on analyzes of hundreds of scenarios for the future expansion of charging infrastructure in Sweden. These scenarios have been analyzed using a custom built simulation tool, which simulates freight transport along millions of routes on the Swedish road network. For each individual route, vehicle class and year, battery capacity and charging locations are optimized to ensure sufficient battery capacity and to minimize the business economic cost of freight transport along the route. The capacity and partially placement of charging infrastructure is demand-driven, based on the aggregate demand from all transport routes. User charges for charging are calculated individually for different charging infrastructure sites based on estimated usage, in competition with other charging infrastructure, and are fed back to influence the choice of charging method along transport routes. Driving patterns, used combinations of charging infrastructure, capacity of battery packs in vehicles and changing battery technology over time are used to dynamically calculate the life cycle cost of vehicle batteries. Today's tax revenue from fuel sales is converted into a kilometer tax that is applied equally to both diesel and battery electric vehicles.