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  • 1.
    Harahap, F.
    et al.
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Leduc, S.
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Austria.
    Mesfun, Sennai
    RISE - Research Institutes of Sweden (2017-2019), Bioeconomy.
    Kraxner, F.
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Austria.
    Silveira, S.
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    The role of oil palm biomass to meet liquid biofuels target in Indonesia2019In: ECOS 2019 - Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems, Institute of Thermal Technology , 2019, p. 1509-1524Conference paper (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Indonesia aims at reducing the dependence on oil import by liquid biofuels consumption (i.e., biodiesel and bio-ethanol) in industry, transport and power sectors. The palm oil industry has played significant role in the development of biodiesel in the country producing crude palm oil (CPO) and palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD) based biodiesel. Opportunity exists for the industry to contribute to the development of bio-ethanol program by utilising the lignocellulosic biomass such as the empty fruit bunches (EFB). This study evaluates the potential of liquid biofuels production from oil palm biomass and the domestic demand for biofuels as per biofuel blending target set by the Indonesian government. The existing infrastructures as well as the investment opportunity of each type of biofuel are analyzed. While technology for biodiesel production is proven at large scale, the bio-ethanol production from EFB is not commercialized yet. The study shows that meeting the biodiesel blending target is at risk if Indonesia continues to solely reliance on the production of CPO and PFAD based biodiesel. Palm oil industry can produce nearly 7 billion litres biodiesel from CPO and PFAD in 2025 but the biodiesel domestic demand is 30% higher. The bio-ethanol program faces higher risk. EFB based ethanol through gasification and synthesis of alcohol can contribute to around 13% of the target in 2025, however the infrastructure is not ready yet. Feedstock diversification to produce liquid biofuels should be prioritized. We recommend a review of the current plan to a more achievable targets or prolong the timeline in order to secure domestic biofuels demand while continuing export. The study provides database for future modelling exercise on multi-period optimization study of palm biofuels supply chain in Indonesia in a geographically explicit way.

  • 2.
    Harahap, Fumi
    et al.
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Leduc, Sylvain
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Austria.
    Mesfun, Sennai
    RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Bioeconomy and Health, Biorefinery and Energy.
    Khatiwada, Dilip
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Kraxner, Florian
    International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Austria.
    Silveira, Semida
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Meeting the bioenergy targets from palm oil based biorefineries: An optimal configuration in Indonesia2020In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 278, article id 115749Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Biorefineries provide opportunities to improve the economic, environmental, and social performance of bio-based production systems. Prudent planning of plant configuration and localization is however of great merit to obtain maximum benefits from biorefineries. This study investigates optimal deployment of palm oil-based biorefineries on the two major islands of Indonesia, Sumatra and Kalimantan. In addition, the results of the optimal bioenergy (bioelectricity, biodiesel, ethanol) production are used to calculate the potential contribution of the palm oil industry according to the national bioenergy targets from 2020 to 2030. This work also offers a new perspective of analyzing the role of bioenergy in the palm oil industry in relation to meeting the bioenergy targets through the development of spatially explicit optimization model, BeWhere Indonesia. Results show that the palm oil-based biorefineries in Sumatra and Kalimantan can produce 1–1.25 GW of electricity, 4.6–12.5 bL of biodiesel, and 2.8–4.8 bL of ethanol in 2030. Significant efforts in terms of mobilization of resources and economic instruments are required to harness the full potential offered by the palm oil-based biorefineries. This study provides an important insight on how palm oil biorefineries can be developed for their enhanced roles in meeting global sustainability efforts.

  • 3.
    Jafri, Yawer
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Sweden.
    Wetterlund, Elisabeth
    Luleå University of Technology, Sweden.
    Mesfun, Sennai
    RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Bioeconomy and Health, Biorefinery and Energy. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Austria.
    Rådberg, Henrik
    Preem AB, Sweden.
    Mossberg, Johanna
    RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Bioeconomy and Health, Biorefinery and Energy. Luleå University of Technology, Sweden.
    Hulteberg, Christian
    Lund University, Sweden; SunCarbon AB, Sweden.
    Furusjö, Erik
    RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Bioeconomy and Health, Biorefinery and Energy. Luleå University of Technology, Sweden.
    Combining expansion in pulp capacity with production of sustainable biofuels – Techno-economic and greenhouse gas emissions assessment of drop-in fuels from black liquor part-streams2020In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 279, article id 115879Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Drop-in biofuels from forest by-products such as black liquor can help deliver deep reductions in transport greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels in our vehicle fleet. Black liquor is produced at pulp mills that can increase their pulping capacity by upgrading some of it to drop-in biofuels but this is not well-studied. We evaluate the techno-economic and greenhouse gas performance of five drop-in biofuel pathways based on BL lignin separation with hydrotreatment or black liquor gasification with catalytic synthesis. We also assess how integrated biofuel production impacts different types of pulp mills and a petroleum refinery by using energy and material balances assembled from experimental data supplemented by expert input. Our results indicate that drop-in biofuels from black liquor part-streams can be produced for ~80 EUR2017/MWh, which puts black liquor on the same footing (or better) as comparable forest residue-based alternatives. The best pathways in both production routes have comparable costs and their principal biofuel products (petrol for black liquor gasification and diesel for lignin hydrotreatment) complement each other. All pathways surpass European Union's sustainability criteria for greenhouse gas savings from new plants. Supplementing black liquor with pyrolysis oil or electrolysis hydrogen can improve biofuel production potentials and feedstock diversity, but better economic performance does not accompany these benefits. Fossil hydrogen represents the cheaper option for lignin hydrotreatment by some margin, but greenhouse gas savings from renewable hydrogen are nearly twice as great. Research on lignin upgrading in industrial conditions is recommended for reducing the presently significant performance uncertainties. © 2020 The Authors

  • 4.
    Meng, Ying
    et al.
    Harbin Institute of Technology, China; Southern University of Science and Technology, China.
    Liu, Jungyu
    Southern University of Science and Technology, China.
    Leduc, Sylvain
    IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Mesfun, Sennai
    RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Bioeconomy and Health. IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Kraxner, Florian
    IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Mao, Ganquan
    Southern University of Science and Technology, China; Wuhan University, China.
    Qi, Wei
    Southern University of Science and Technology, China.
    Wang, Z
    Southern University of Science and Technology, China; University of Hong Kong, China.
    Hydropower Production Benefits More From 1.5 °C than 2 °C Climate Scenario2020In: Water resources research, ISSN 0043-1397, E-ISSN 1944-7973, Vol. 56, no 5, article id e2019WR025519Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Hydropower plays an important role as renewable and clean energy in the world's overall energy supply. Electricity generation from hydropower represented approximately 16.6% of the world's total electricity and 70% of all renewable electricity in 2015. Determining the different effects of 1.5 and 2 °C of global warming has become a hot spot in water resources research. However, there are still few studies on the impacts of different global warming levels on gross hydropower potential. This study used a coupled hydrological and techno-economic model framework to assess hydropower production under global warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C, while also considering gross hydropower potential, power consumption, and economic factors. The results show that both global warming levels will have a positive impact on the hydropower production of a tropical island (Sumatra) relative to the historical period; however, the ratio of hydropower production versus power demand provided by 1.5 °C of global warming is 40% higher than that provided by 2 °C of global warming under RCP6.0. The power generation by hydropower plants shows incongruous changing trends with hydropower potential under the same global warming levels. This inconformity occurs because the optimal sites for hydropower plants were chosen by considering not only hydropower potential but also economic factors. In addition, the reduction in CO2 emissions under global warming of 1.5 °C (39.06 × 106 t) is greater than that under global warming of 2 °C (10.20 × 106 t), which reveals that global warming decreases the benefits necessary to relieve global warming levels. However, the hydropower generation and the reduction in CO2 emissions will be far less than the energy demand when protected areas are excluded as potential sites for hydropower plants, with a sharp decrease of 40–80%. Thus, government policy-makers should consider the trade-off between hydropower generation and forest coverage area in nationally determined contributions. © 2020 The Authors.

  • 5.
    Mesfun, Sennai
    et al.
    RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Bioeconomy and Health, Biorefinery and Energy.
    Engvall, Klas
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Toffolo, Andrea
    Luleå University of Technology, Sweden.
    Electrolysis Assisted Biomass Gasification for Liquid Fuels Production2022In: Frontiers in Energy Research, E-ISSN 2296-598X, Vol. 10, article id 799553Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Gasification is a promising pathway for converting biomass residues into renewable transportation fuels and chemicals needed to comply with the ambitious Swedish environmental targets. The paper investigates the integration of a molten carbonate electrolysis cell (MCEC) in biofuel production pathway from sawmill byproducts, to improve the performance of gas cleaning and conditioning steps prior to the final conversion of syngas into liquid biofuels. The energy, material, and economic performance of process configurations with different gasification technologies are simulated and compared. The results provide relevant information to develop the engineering of gas-to-liquid transportation fuels utilizing renewable electricity. The MCEC replaces the water-gas shift step of a conventional syngas conditioning process and enables increased product throughput by as much as 15%–31%. Depending on the process configuration and steam-methane reforming technology, biofuels can be produced to the cost range 140–155 €/MWh in the short-term. Copyright © 2022 Mesfun, Engvall and Toffolo.

  • 6.
    Mesfun, Sennai
    et al.
    RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Bioeconomy and Health, Biorefinery and Energy.
    Gustafsson, Gabriel
    Bioshare AB, Sweden.
    Larsson, Anton
    Bioshare AB, Sweden.
    Samavati, Mahrokh
    KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden.
    Furusjö, Erik
    RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Bioeconomy and Health, Biorefinery and Energy. Luleå University of Technology, Sweden.
    Electrification of Biorefinery Concepts for Improved Productivity—Yield, Economic and GHG Performances2023In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 16, no 21, article id 7436Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Demand for biofuels will likely increase, driven by intensifying obligations to decarbonize aviation and maritime sectors. Sustainable biomass is a finite resource, and the forest harvesting level is a topic of ongoing discussions, in relation to biodiversity preservation and the short-term role of forests as carbon sinks. State-of-the-art technologies for converting lignocellulosic feedstock into transportation biofuels achieves a carbon utilization rate ranging from 25% to 50%. Mature technologies like second-generation ethanol and gasification-based processes tend to fall toward the lower end of this spectrum. This study explores how electrification can enhance the carbon efficiency of biorefinery concepts and investigates its impact on energy, economics and greenhouse gas emissions. Results show that electrification increases carbon efficiency from 28% to 123% for gasification processes, from 28% to 45% for second-generation ethanol, and from 50% to 65% for direct liquefaction processes. Biofuels are produced to a cost range 60–140 EUR/MWh-biofuel, depending on the chosen technology pathway, feedstock and electricity prices. Notably, production in electrified biorefineries proves cost-competitive when compared to pure electrofuel (E-fuels) tracks. Depending on the selected technology pathway and the extent of electrification, a reduction in GHG emissions ranging from 75% to 98% is achievable, particularly when powered by a low-carbon electricity mix. 

  • 7.
    Mesfun, Sennai
    et al.
    RISE - Research Institutes of Sweden (2017-2019), Bioeconomy, Biorefinery and Energy.
    Matsakas, Leonidis
    Luleå University of Technology, Sweden.
    Rova, Ulrika
    Luleå University of Technology, Sweden.
    Christakopoulos, Paul
    Luleå University of Technology, Sweden.
    Technoeconomic assessment of hybrid organosolv-steam explosion pretreatment of woody biomass2019In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 12, no 21, article id en12214206Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    This study investigates technoeconomic performance of standalone biorefinery concepts that utilize hybrid organic solvent and steam explosion pretreatment technique. The assessments were made based on a mathematical process model developed in UniSim Design software using inhouse experimental data. The work was motivated by successful experimental applications of the hybrid pretreatment technique on lignocellulosic feedstocks that demonstrated high fractionation efficiency into a cellulose-rich, a hemicellulose-rich and lignin streams. For the biorefinery concepts studied here, the targeted final products were ethanol, organosolv lignin and hemicellulose syrup. Minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) and Internal rate of return (IRR) were evaluated as economic indicators of the investigated biorefinery concepts. Depending on the configuration, and allocating all costs to ethanol, MESP in the range 0.53-0.95 €/L were required for the biorefinery concepts to break even. Under the assumed ethanol reference price of 0.55 €/L, the corresponding IRR were found to be in the range -1.75-10.7%. Hemicellulose degradation and high steam demand identified as major sources of inefficiencies for the process and economic performance, respectively. Sensitivity of MESP and IRR towards the most influential technical, economic and market parameters performed. © 2019 by the authors.

  • 8.
    Ringkjøb, Hans-Kristian
    et al.
    University of Bergen, Norway; Institute for Energy Technology, Norway; IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Haugan, Peter
    University of Bergen, Norway.
    Seljom, Pernille
    Institute for Energy Technology, Norway.
    Lind, Arne
    Institute for Energy Technology, Norway.
    Wagner, Fabian
    IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Mesfun, Sennai
    RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Bioeconomy and Health, Biorefinery and Energy. IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Short-term solar and wind variability in long-term energy system models - A European case study2020In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 209, article id 118377Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Integration of variable renewables such as solar and wind has grown at an unprecedented pace in Europe over the past two decades. As the share of solar and wind rises, it becomes increasingly important for long-term energy system models to adequately represent their short-term variability. This paper uses a long-term TIMES model of the European power and district heat sectors towards 2050 to explore how stochastic modelling of short-term solar and wind variability as well as different temporal resolutions influence the model performance. Using a stochastic model with 48 time-slices as benchmark, the results show that deterministic models with low temporal resolution give a 15–20% underestimation of annual costs, an overestimation of the contribution of variable renewables (13–15% of total electricity generation) and a lack of system flexibility. The results of the deterministic models converge towards the stochastic solution when the temporal resolution is increased, but even with 2016 time-slices, the need for flexibility is underestimated. In addition, the deterministic model with 2016 time-slices takes 30 times longer to solve than the stochastic model with 48 time-slices. Based on these findings, a stochastic approach is recommended for long-term studies of energy systems with large shares of variable renewable energy sources. © 2020 The Authors

  • 9.
    Zetterholm, Jonas
    et al.
    Luleå University of Technology, Sweden.
    Pettersson, Karin
    RISE - Research Institutes of Sweden (2017-2019), Built Environment, Energy and Circular Economy.
    Leduc, Sylvain
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Mesfun, Sennai
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Lundgren, Joakim
    Luleå University of Technology, Sweden ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Wetterlund, Elisabeth
    Luleå University of Technology, Sweden ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria.
    Resource efficiency or economy of scale: Biorefinery supply chain configurations for co-gasification of black liquor and pyrolysis liquids2018In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 230, p. 912-924Article in journal (Refereed)
    Abstract [en]

    Biorefineries for the production of fuels, chemicals, or materials can be an important contributor to reducing dependence on fossil fuels. The economic performance of the biorefinery supply chain can be increased by, for example, industrial integration to utilise excess heat and products, increasing size to improve economy of scale, and using intermediate upgrading to reduce feedstock transport cost. To enable a large-scale introduction of biorefineries it is important to identify cost efficient supply chain configurations. This work investigates a lignocellulosic biorefinery concept integrated with forest industry, focusing on how different economic conditions affect the preferred supply chain configurations. The technology investigated is black liquor gasification, with and without the addition of pyrolysis liquids to increase production capacity. Primarily, it analyses trade-offs between high biomass conversion efficiency and economy of scale effects, as well as the selection of centralised vs. decentralised supply chain configurations. The results show the economic advantage for biomass efficient configurations, when the biorefinery investment is benefited from an alternative investment credit due to the replacement of current capital-intensive equipment at the host industry. However, the investment credit received heavily influenced the cost of the biorefinery and clearly illustrates the benefit for industrial integration to reduce the cost of biorefineries. There is a benefit for a decentralised supply chain configuration under very high biomass competition. However, for lower biomass competition, site-specific conditions will impact the favourability of either centralised or decentralised supply chain configurations.

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