Short-term solar and wind variability in long-term energy system models - A European case studyShow others and affiliations
2020 (English)In: Energy, ISSN 0360-5442, E-ISSN 1873-6785, Vol. 209, article id 118377Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]
Integration of variable renewables such as solar and wind has grown at an unprecedented pace in Europe over the past two decades. As the share of solar and wind rises, it becomes increasingly important for long-term energy system models to adequately represent their short-term variability. This paper uses a long-term TIMES model of the European power and district heat sectors towards 2050 to explore how stochastic modelling of short-term solar and wind variability as well as different temporal resolutions influence the model performance. Using a stochastic model with 48 time-slices as benchmark, the results show that deterministic models with low temporal resolution give a 15–20% underestimation of annual costs, an overestimation of the contribution of variable renewables (13–15% of total electricity generation) and a lack of system flexibility. The results of the deterministic models converge towards the stochastic solution when the temporal resolution is increased, but even with 2016 time-slices, the need for flexibility is underestimated. In addition, the deterministic model with 2016 time-slices takes 30 times longer to solve than the stochastic model with 48 time-slices. Based on these findings, a stochastic approach is recommended for long-term studies of energy systems with large shares of variable renewable energy sources. © 2020 The Authors
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd , 2020. Vol. 209, article id 118377
Keywords [en]
Energy modelling, Stochastic modelling, TIMES energy-Models, Variable renewable energy, Renewable energy resources, Solar power generation, Stochastic systems, Deterministic modeling, Deterministic models, Electricity generation, Energy system model, Stochastic approach, Stochastic solution, Temporal resolution, Variable renewable energies, Stochastic models
National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-45608DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.118377Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85088641076OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ri-45608DiVA, id: diva2:1458287
Note
Funding details: Universitetet i Bergen, UiB; Funding details: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA; Funding details: Norges Forskningsråd; Funding text 1: The first author’s research project is financed by the University of Bergen . Part of the research was developed during the Young Scientists Summer Program at the International Institute for Systems Analysis ( IIASA ), with financial support from the Research Council of Norway .
2020-08-142020-08-142023-04-05Bibliographically approved