This Deliverable 6.2 “Rich narratives” – Scenario analyses forthe Lighthouse cities and recommendations summarizes the process and outcome of Task 6.3 “Contextual Scenario analysis”. The work was carried out during October 2017 – November 2018.

The deliverable describes one “rich narrative” of a plausible and relevant future each for the lighthouse cities of Umeå, Glasgow, and Rotterdam for the year 2033, specifically by providing a maximum credible upscaling potential of the smart solutions, thereby fulfilling the expectations of the project stakeholders and the description in the Grant Agreement.

The analysis was performed in close cooperation with each lighthouse city, using foresight and innovations system analysis, notably through (1) interviews with smart solution stakeholders, (2) the creation of the visualisation tool UPSCALE (Upscaling System) to determine the upscaling potential of the technical solutions and innovations, and (3) the execution of one workshop for each city, capturing unique conditions and providing each city with a future image, helping determine which options for action are most robust.

The results in Deliverable 6.2 will influence Task 6.1 “Innovation Platforms” and serve as an input to Task 6.4 “Assessing the long-term scaling potential and energy system effects of the light house smart solutions”.