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Consideration of uncertainties in LCA for infrastructure using probabilistic methods
Lund University, Sweden.
RISE - Research Institutes of Sweden, Built Environment, Building Technology.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5879-7305
RISE - Research Institutes of Sweden, Safety and Transport, Safety.
IVL, Sweden.
2019 (English)In: Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, ISSN 1573-2479, E-ISSN 1744-8980, Vol. 15, no 6, p. 711-724Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The construction and usage of transport infrastructure are major causes of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption. The effects of resource consumption and pollutant emissions are often quantified through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) models. All decisions made in infrastructure projects during the whole life cycle are afflicted by uncertainty, e.g. physical properties of materials or amount of pollutants emitted by certain processes. The pervasive role of uncertainty is reflected in LCA models, which therefore should consider uncertainty from various sources and provide a sound quantification of their effects. The aim of the work presented in this paper is to give an overview of different sources of uncertainty in LCA of infrastructure projects and to describe systematic methods to evaluate their influence on the results. The possibility of including uncertainty in a LCA-tool for infrastructure is presented, studying the sensitivity of the model output to the input parameters and two alternative approaches for propagation of uncertainty using two case studies. It is shown that, besides the influence of uncertainty in emission factors, other inputs such as material amounts and service life could contribute significantly to the variability of model output and has to be considered if reliable results are sought. © 2019, © 2019 The Author(s).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 15, no 6, p. 711-724
Keywords [en]
bridges, Life cycle assessment, Monte Carlo simulations, tunnels, uncertainty, variation mode and effect analysis, Energy utilization, Gas emissions, Greenhouse gases, Intelligent systems, Monte Carlo methods, Pollution, Uncertainty analysis, Effect analysis, Infrastructure project, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Life cycle assessment model, Physical properties of materials, Propagation of uncertainties, Transport infrastructure, Life cycle
National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-38227DOI: 10.1080/15732479.2019.1572200Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85062357537OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ri-38227DiVA, id: diva2:1299517
Available from: 2019-03-27 Created: 2019-03-27 Last updated: 2019-08-12Bibliographically approved

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Honfi, Daniel

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