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Assessing human-caused wildfire ignition likelihood across Europe
University of Zaragoza, Spain; University of Lleida, Spain.
University of Zaragoza, Spain; University of Lleida, Spain.
University of Lleida, Spain.
RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Safety and Transport, Fire and Safety.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8670-062x
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2023 (English)In: Int. Conf. Smart Sustain. Technol., SpliTech, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. , 2023Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Fire ignition probability is an essential component of most fire risk assessment frameworks. This study, framed within the H2020 project FirEUrisk, features a cohesive modelling approach in a set of representative regions (pilot sites; PS) in terms of fire activity across the European territory. These PS encompass different wildfire regimes in contrasting environmental settings: PS-1 Northern Europe, Kalmar Iän (South-East Sweden); PS-2 Central Europe, Southern Brandenburg and Eastern Saxony (Germany), North Bohemia (Czechia), and Lower Silesia (Poland); PS-3 Central Portugal; PS-4 Barcelona province (Spain); and PS-5 Attica region (Greece). Our main goal was to develop a common approach to model human-caused ignitions at a fine-grained spatial resolution (100 meters). For each pilot site we: (i) ascertain which factors influence ignition, hence, addressing potential differences in driving forces and, (ii) provide a spatial-explicit depiction of the patterns of ignition probability. For that propose, we fitted a Random Forest (RF) model in each PS from historical fire records (compiled by local fire agencies) and geospatial layers for land cover, accessibility, and population related factors. All models attained a high predictive accuracy, with AUCs that ranging from 0.69 (Northern Europe) to 0.89 (Attica Region). In turn, the most relevant explanatory variable was the population density that ranked most influential in four out of the five PS, followed by the fuel type, distance to roads, distance to the WUI, and percent cover of forest and wildlands. These findings are a valuable product to upscale future solutions at regional level (beyond NUTS3-type areas), conduct fire behavior modelling simulations, and enrich the science-based decisions which come from the forest and fire management agents at national and European level. © 2023 University of Split, FESB.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. , 2023.
Keywords [en]
fire hazard, FirEUrisk, pilot-sites, Random Forest, wildfire ignition probability, Fire hazards, Forestry, Population statistics, Risk assessment, Cohesive model, Fire risk assessment, Ignition probability, Modeling approach, Pilot-site, Random forests, Risk assessment framework, Wildfire ignition, Fires
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-66124DOI: 10.23919/SpliTech58164.2023.10193249Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85168101406ISBN: 9789532901283 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ri-66124DiVA, id: diva2:1795453
Conference
2023 8th International Conference on Smart and Sustainable Technologies, SpliTech 2023
Note

This work was financed by the projects “FirEUrisk:Developing a Holistic, Risk-wise Strategy for European Wildfire Management”, funded from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101003890; and “FIREPATHS” (PID2020-116556RA-I00), funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. The authors would like to thank for receiving the contract "Margarita Salas" (MS-240621) by Adrián Jiménez-Ruano, granted by the Ministry of Universities in Spain.

Available from: 2023-09-08 Created: 2023-09-08 Last updated: 2023-09-08Bibliographically approved

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