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Impacts of future climate on local water supply and demand – A socio-hydrological case study in the Nordic region
RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Built Environment, Energy and Resources. SLU Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6323-1397
RISE Research Institutes of Sweden, Built Environment, Energy and Resources.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-6174-1396
SLU Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
SLU Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden.
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2022 (English)In: Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, E-ISSN 2214-5818, Vol. 41, article id 101066Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Study region: Fårö island, part of Region Gotland, Sweden. Study focus: Despite its importance for proactive planning and management, understanding of how future climate and socioeconomic trends may interact to influence water supply and demand at sub-regional scale remains limited for the Nordic region. We aim to close this knowledge gap by developing a combined social and hydrological simulation model for Fårö island in the Baltic Sea. We use multivariate Monte Carlo simulations to explore the effects of future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on local groundwater supplies, and subsequent impacts on the housing sector, tourism sector, and municipal water supply system in the period 2020–2050. New hydrological insights for the region: Our results suggest that groundwater storage will remain critically low in the coming 30 years, with a 60–70% probability of the groundwater head falling to lower levels than experienced in the past 60 years. Low water availability and widespread saltwater intrusion will constrain housing and tourism development by up to 11% and 30% respectively. To sustain growth, the tourist sector will become increasingly reliant on water from private wells, and supplementary water deliveries from neighboring regions will be required to meet water demand on the municipal grid. © 2022 The Authors

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier B.V. , 2022. Vol. 41, article id 101066
Keywords [en]
Climate change, Groundwater, Socioeconomic impact, System Dynamics, Water scarcity
National Category
Water Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-58997DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101066Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85127162843OAI: oai:DiVA.org:ri-58997DiVA, id: diva2:1668358
Note

 Funding text 1: Thanks to participants from the Department of Water Management at Region Gotland for their contributions in data collection, model development and validation. Also thanks to Jake Jacobson and Len Malczynski at MindsEye Computing, Idaho Falls USA, for reviewing and providing invaluable feedback throughout the model development process.

Available from: 2022-06-13 Created: 2022-06-13 Last updated: 2023-06-07Bibliographically approved

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Nicolaidis Lindqvist, AndreasFornell, Rickard

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