In this paper a rapid method for residual cure stress analysis from composite manufacturing is presented. The method uses a high-fidelity path-dependent cure kinetics subroutine implemented in ABAQUS to calibrate a linear elastic model. The path-dependent model accounts for the tool-part interaction, forming pressure, and the changing composite modulus during the rubbery phase of matrix curing. Results are used to calculate equivalent lamina-wise coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) in 3 directions for a linear temperature analysis. The goal is to accurately predict distortions for large complex geometries as rapidly as possible for use in an optimization framework. A carbon-epoxy system is studied. Simple coupons and complex parts are manufactured and measured with a 3 D scanner to compare the manufactured and simulated distortion. Results are presented and the accuracy and limitations of the rapid simulation method are discussed with particular focus on implementation in a numerical optimization framework. © The Author(s) 2021.