The transport sector accounts for about 20% of EU’s GHG-emissions. Progress in emission reductions has been slow and primarily driven by biofuels promoted through national blending mandates. The mandates differ in whether they are measured in volume, energy, or emission reduction and in how gasoline and diesel are targeted. Due to this, national mandates and their effects have not previously been quantitatively compared on an EU level. In this article we convert the mandates for all EU member states between 2009 and 2020 to a common unit and study their impact on biofuel consumption, production, emission reductions and fuel prices. We find that mandates are driving biofuel consumption in the EU and correlates with emission reductions. Increased mandates have however often been fulfilled by blending biofuels eligible for double counting. We also find that reduction mandates have been effective in encouraging high-performance biofuels. For historical fuel prices, we do not see a clear correlation between countries’ shares of biofuel and consumer fuel prices while the global oil price has a considerable impact. For biofuel production, increased demand drive investments in the EU, but when it comes to localisation of new plants factors such as local infrastructure are more important than national mandates. 

Inblandning av biodrivmedel är en viktig faktor för att Sverige ska klara målet om 70 % utsläppsminskningar i transportsektorn till 2030. Sverige är redan idag en av de största konsumenterna av biodrivmedel för transporter i EU, och 85% av de biodrivmedel som används kommer från import. Sverige påverkas direkt av EU-lagstiftning för biodrivmedel, men eftersom biodrivmedel handlas internationellt påverkas vår möjlighet att importera och exportera biodrivmedel även av tillgång och efterfrågan i andra länder. För att kunna utforma effektiva svenska styrmedel är det därför viktigt att förstå hur produktion, konsumtion och styrmedel för biodrivmedel ser ut i andra länder i EU. Precis som i Sverige så drivs konsumtion av biodrivmedel i andra EU-länder framför allt av styrmedel som påverkar konsumtion. Det vanligaste styrmedlet är inblandningskvoter liknande den svenska reduktionsplikten. I det nya förnybartdirektivet från EU (RED II) som kom 2018 läggs ett större fokus på avancerade biodrivmedel och målet är att de ska utgöra minst 0,2 % 2022, 1 % 2025 och 3,5 % 2030. 2020 hade 20 EU-länder (inklusive Storbritannien) egna nationella kvoter med krav på inblandning av avancerade biodrivmedel. Sverige har än så länge inte en speciell kvot för avancerade biodrivmedel. Det finns dock ett flertal planerade anläggningar i Sverige som kan komma att bli stora producenter av avancerade biodrivmedel.

The construction sector is a major contributor to global warming. One solution to the challenge is to develop new sustainable material alternatives. The BioZEment concept employs bio-catalytic dissolution and precipitation of calcium carbonate as a novel alternative to concrete. In this report, the reduction in global warming potential of using BioZEment is assessed with a building stock model, where the use of conventional concrete is compared to the use of BioZEment in Norwegian dwellings until 2100. The assessment is conducted with the assumption that BioZEment has expected material properties and is gradually penetrating the building stock until it reaches a full implementation by 2050.

Results indicate that the use of BioZEment has a higher potential of reducing global warming potential than conventional concrete, regardless of the development of the cement industry. BioZEment could decrease cumulative greenhouse gas emissions with ca 15 % by 2100 compared to using conventional concrete with a conservative development and slightly less if compared to using concrete with an optimistic development (including among other initiatives breakthrough technologies like carbon capture and storage, and carbon capture and utilization).

Results also indicate that, while BioZEment is not fully implemented in the entire building stock, using the optimistic development concrete instead of conservative concrete provides the lowest cumulative emissions by 2100. That means that including several migration strategies at the same time will reduce emissions further than taking one single action.

The building stock model provides interesting indications about the potential of BioZEment, which can guide further development. If Norway is to meet its ambitious goals of emission reductions and climate neutrality, it is important to design thought through and robust strategies for the construction sector.

Many bio-based technologies are emerging technologies, with the characteristics of being radical and fast growing. The 2018 Nobel prize in chemistry is based on enzymatic bio-based conversion as a green alterative for several conventional technologies. Overall, the transition to a bio-based economy is seen as a mean to reach sustainability, energy independence and economic growth. Bioeconomy strategies have however also been criticized for focusing too much on economic growth and too little on sustainability. Assessing potential life cycle sustainability risks and benefits early in the development of technologies – when still at lab or pilot scale – provides valuable insights about how to prioritize research activities and to potentially avert unintended consequences. The lack of knowledge and high uncertainty in early development however also makes such assessments challenging. On the social sustainability side, bio-based technologies create new jobs, while the social acceptance can hinder the market growth even in an innovation country like Sweden. Emerging technologies like for example artificial intelligence might reduce jobs and gene therapy in medicine might bear risk for coming future generation. The questions and risks are manifold. Therefore, it is essential to have a roadmap for guidance that takes a holistic approach to sustainability with a life cycle perspective. To add to the complexity, the possibilities for assessment approaches are extensive. Different perspectives can be assessed in numerous ways and with many different methods. The goal of this study is to contribute to a sustainable transition to the bioeconomy, by serving as a roadmap for research and innovation (R&I) on emerging bio-based technologies.

To suggest a general roadmap for holistic and interdisciplinary assessments, this study identifies, and describes the use of multiple perspective assessments in selected R&I projects on emerging bio-based technologies. The projects include virgin and waste raw materials, biotechnology conversion processes and products such as bio-based chemicals, building materials, soil amendment, and pellets for heat. The findings are, in combination with existing frameworks on biomass- and bio-product prospect models, used to suggest an assessment roadmap for identifying sustainability prospects of emerging bio-based technologies.

The result consists of an “assessment roadmap” including the perspectives resource-, economic-, environmental-, social- and market potential. Each perspective is accompanied by questions targeted to identify benefits and risks, such as “What valorization routes currently exists, and are under research, for the feedstock?”; “Is the feedstock available, also in the future?”; “Is the production technology socially accepted?”. The roadmap for bio -based emerging technologies also provides advice on the procedure for sustainability assessments, such as organizing an initial workshop with expert knowledge and highlight the importance of scanning before allocating resources for in depth analyses.

The overall aim of the project, Forestry to jet (F2J), is to produce sustainable aviaion fuel (SAF)from residual forest biomass to meet Swedavia’s target of a fossil free national aviation sector in 2030. Task 2.1 concluded that industrial forest residues (e.g., sawdust, bark, shavings) and harvest residues (i.e., top, brunches, and stumps) can be used as possible feedstock for a continuous production of SAF with Alcohol-to Jet and Sugar-to Jet processes in Sweden. In this context, the objective of this task is to identify potential sustainability issues regarding the selected feedstock as well as to perform a well-to-wing greenhouse gas (GHG) assessment of selected supply chain. The sustainability of bio-jets is strongly dependent on the availability of sustainable feedstock. The availability of forest-based residues for SAF depends on the development of the Swedish forest and forest industry (for instance, demand for timber and pulp and paper) and on the sustainability constraints for residue removals. Swedish forestry is an important source of sustainable material supply. The forest is managed according to the Forestry Act, which gives equal importance to production and environmental goals to obtain a long-term sustainable flow of forest products while preserving ecological processes and biodiversity. The harvested timber is mainly used in saw- and pulp-mills. Residues from saw-mills constitute a potential source of feedstock (2.7 million tons DS) but are used to a large extent. Residues from harvested biomass (tops, branches and stumps) represent an additional source of feedstock for SAF; however, their extraction could lead to environmental challenges such as a reduction in soil and water quality and biodiversity. Currently, about 2.2 million tons DS of harvest residues are used for energy and studies have shown that harvest levels can be further increased to obtain additional 3.3 million tons DS while still being considering sustainable. In this way, the available feedstock would correspond to 1.5 times the total need for the aviation fuel in Sweden (2.3 million tons DS). Sustainable feedstock is determined according to certain “safe thresholds” for harvest residues. The reviewed studies estimated these thresholds so that the extraction of residues does not contribute to forest production reduction, biodiversity loss, acidification, eutrophication, and toxic substances. For a more comprehensive sustainability assessment, other aspects of sustainability, including socio-economic aspects should be considered. It is also relevant to investigate how the demand for SAF affects the availability of feedstock for other competing uses.