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Sjöström, J. & Granström, A. (2023). A phenology-driven fire danger index for northern grasslands. International journal of wildland fire
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A phenology-driven fire danger index for northern grasslands
2023 (English)In: International journal of wildland fire, ISSN 1049-8001, E-ISSN 1448-5516Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Background: Directly after snowmelt, northern grasslands typically have highly flammable fuel-beds consisting of 100% grass litter. With green-up, the addition of high-moisture foliage leads to progressively decreasing fire hazard.

Aims: Our aim was to create a fire-danger index for northern grasslands that incorporated grass phenology.

Methods: We made use of 25 years of Swedish wildfire data and 56 experimental fires conducted during one full fire-season, merged with established models for moisture content and flame spread rates. Refined data on equilibrium moisture content of grass litter were obtained through laboratory tests.

Key results: The RING (Rate of spread In Northern Grasslands) model uses cumulative air temperature as a proxy for growing season progression. Three independent functions account for impact of wind, moisture content and the damping effect of live grass, respectively. The latter results in exponentially decaying rate of spread (ROS) with the progressing season. Following the field experiments, green grass proportion as low as 10–20% (live/dead dry-mass) resulted in model-ROS so reduced that the grassland fire season could effectively be considered over.

Conclusions: The model, calculated from standard meteorological data only, matches the experimental results and separately performed validation tests, as well as wildfire dispatch data.

Implications: RING has been used in Sweden since 2021 and is likely applicable to other northern regions as well.

Keywords
ecosystems, boreal, fire behaviour, northern grasslands, phenology, propagation, fire danger, fuel, wildland–urban interface
National Category
Other Agricultural Sciences not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-66067 (URN)10.1071/wf23013 (DOI)
Note

This work was jointly funded by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) (Experimental work and construction of the model) and the European Commission project FirEUrisk (GA: 101003890) (analysis and reporting). 

Available from: 2023-08-18 Created: 2023-08-18 Last updated: 2023-08-22Bibliographically approved
Jiménez-Ruano, A., Mimbrero, M. R., Urdíroz, F. A., Sjöström, J., Marrs, C., Ribeiro, L. M., . . . Vega-García, C. (2023). Assessing human-caused wildfire ignition likelihood across Europe. In: Int. Conf. Smart Sustain. Technol., SpliTech: . Paper presented at 2023 8th International Conference on Smart and Sustainable Technologies, SpliTech 2023. Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Assessing human-caused wildfire ignition likelihood across Europe
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2023 (English)In: Int. Conf. Smart Sustain. Technol., SpliTech, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. , 2023Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Fire ignition probability is an essential component of most fire risk assessment frameworks. This study, framed within the H2020 project FirEUrisk, features a cohesive modelling approach in a set of representative regions (pilot sites; PS) in terms of fire activity across the European territory. These PS encompass different wildfire regimes in contrasting environmental settings: PS-1 Northern Europe, Kalmar Iän (South-East Sweden); PS-2 Central Europe, Southern Brandenburg and Eastern Saxony (Germany), North Bohemia (Czechia), and Lower Silesia (Poland); PS-3 Central Portugal; PS-4 Barcelona province (Spain); and PS-5 Attica region (Greece). Our main goal was to develop a common approach to model human-caused ignitions at a fine-grained spatial resolution (100 meters). For each pilot site we: (i) ascertain which factors influence ignition, hence, addressing potential differences in driving forces and, (ii) provide a spatial-explicit depiction of the patterns of ignition probability. For that propose, we fitted a Random Forest (RF) model in each PS from historical fire records (compiled by local fire agencies) and geospatial layers for land cover, accessibility, and population related factors. All models attained a high predictive accuracy, with AUCs that ranging from 0.69 (Northern Europe) to 0.89 (Attica Region). In turn, the most relevant explanatory variable was the population density that ranked most influential in four out of the five PS, followed by the fuel type, distance to roads, distance to the WUI, and percent cover of forest and wildlands. These findings are a valuable product to upscale future solutions at regional level (beyond NUTS3-type areas), conduct fire behavior modelling simulations, and enrich the science-based decisions which come from the forest and fire management agents at national and European level. © 2023 University of Split, FESB.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2023
Keywords
fire hazard, FirEUrisk, pilot-sites, Random Forest, wildfire ignition probability, Fire hazards, Forestry, Population statistics, Risk assessment, Cohesive model, Fire risk assessment, Ignition probability, Modeling approach, Pilot-site, Random forests, Risk assessment framework, Wildfire ignition, Fires
National Category
Computer and Information Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-66124 (URN)10.23919/SpliTech58164.2023.10193249 (DOI)2-s2.0-85168101406 (Scopus ID)9789532901283 (ISBN)
Conference
2023 8th International Conference on Smart and Sustainable Technologies, SpliTech 2023
Note

This work was financed by the projects “FirEUrisk:Developing a Holistic, Risk-wise Strategy for European Wildfire Management”, funded from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101003890; and “FIREPATHS” (PID2020-116556RA-I00), funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. The authors would like to thank for receiving the contract "Margarita Salas" (MS-240621) by Adrián Jiménez-Ruano, granted by the Ministry of Universities in Spain.

Available from: 2023-09-08 Created: 2023-09-08 Last updated: 2023-09-08Bibliographically approved
Sjöström, J., Brandon, D., Temple, A., Anderson, J. & McNamee, R. (2023). External fire plumes from mass timber compartment fires—Comparison to test methods for regulatory compliance of façades. Fire and Materials
Open this publication in new window or tab >>External fire plumes from mass timber compartment fires—Comparison to test methods for regulatory compliance of façades
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2023 (English)In: Fire and Materials, ISSN 0308-0501, E-ISSN 1099-1018Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Post-flashover fires inherently lead to external fire plumes, constituting a hazard for rapid fire spread over façades. As multi-storey mass timber buildings with internal visible timber surfaces become more common, there are concerns that such buildings would produce larger external plumes and hazards (assuming all other parameters equal). The literature reveals only indications of this, and how the actual exposure relates to different test methods for assessment is unknown. Here we utilise a series of full-scale mass timber compartment tests to quantify the exposure to the external façade. An incombustible external façade is instrumented with gauges at positions corresponding to reference data from several different assessment methods. The results show that there is an increase in plume duration, height, and temperatures when increasing the areas of exposed timber, but that this increase is less for normal- to large-opening compartments, than was previously seen in small-opening compartments. Also, normal variations in external wind speed have a larger influence on plume heights than the effect of doubling exposed timber surfaces. Test methods used for regulatory compliance differ significantly not only in exposure but also in pass/fail criteria. The proposed European large exposure method and the BS8414 method exhibit exposures on par with the severe end of what could be expected from mass timber compartments, whereas methods like SP Fire 105 and Lepir II produce significantly less severe plumes. However, the safety level is always a combination of exposure and assessment criteria. This data can help justify assessment criteria from a performance perspective. © 2023 The Authors. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2023
Keywords
BS 8414, exposure, external flaming, Façade, mass timber compartments, standard, testing, Facades, Fire hazards, Regulatory compliance, Thermal plumes, Timber, Wind, Assessment criteria, Compartment fires, External fires, Fire plume, Mass timber compartment, Test method, Timber surfaces, Fires
National Category
Building Technologies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-63983 (URN)10.1002/fam.3129 (DOI)2-s2.0-85147449069 (Scopus ID)
Note

 Correspondence Address: Sjöström, J, RISE Research institutes of Sweden, Box 875, Sweden; email: johan.sjostrom@ri.se;

Funding details: European Commission, EC; Funding text 1: Brandforsk, The Swedish fire research fund and the European Commission (grant SI2.825082 ‐ Finalisation of the European approach to assess the fire performance of façades) are greatly acknowledged for financial support. Additionally, the work could not have been performed without the funding for the mass timber compartments for which we acknowledge United States Forest Service (USFS) ‐ United States Department of Agriculture and other contributing industry partners for material and advice (American Wood Council, Henkel, KLH, Boise Cascade, Rothoblaas, Softwood Export Council, Atelier Jones, UL).

Available from: 2023-02-16 Created: 2023-02-16 Last updated: 2023-06-07Bibliographically approved
Vermina Lundström, F., Sjöström, J. & Granström, A. (2023). Garden structure is critical for building survival in northern forest fires – An analysis using large Swedish wildfires. Safety Science, 157, Article ID 105928.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Garden structure is critical for building survival in northern forest fires – An analysis using large Swedish wildfires
2023 (English)In: Safety Science, ISSN 0925-7535, E-ISSN 1879-1042, Vol. 157, article id 105928Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Despite increasing concern over wildfires in Fennoscandia, there are essentially no studies on the survivability of buildings within the wildland-urban interface of this region. We make use of four recent large-scale fires in Sweden to elucidate which factors are important for survival, using multiple logistic regression analysis of data collected at the sites. We obtained data on 187 buildings within the fire perimeters, nearly all with wood paneling and tile- or sheet metal roofing. 35 % of the buildings were lost or badly damaged. Results indicate that most buildings were approached by relatively low-intensity fire and that ignition primarily occurred through direct flame contact. The most important factor for survivability was the presence of a maintained lawn. The second most important was that no flammable material was present close to the building façade. Further, fire intensity often decreased close to buildings due to a larger portion of deciduous trees around gardens than in the surrounding forest. These factors were more important than specific features of the building itself, reflecting that the majority of buildings have combustible wooden façades. Our results suggest that the greatest potential for increasing building safety in the Swedish WUI is to keep the area immediately surrounding the building (∼5 m) free from tree litter and other flammable material. Also, since fire intensities are generally low, buildings can in most cases be defended with simple tools without compromising personal safety.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier B.V., 2023
Keywords
Boreal, Building loss, Scandinavia, Wildfire, Wildland-urban interface, Buildings, Fire hazards, Flammability, Regression analysis, Sheet metal, Fennoscandia, Fire intensity, Forest fires, Northern forests, Swedishs, Wildland urban interface, Fires, article, deciduous plant, flame, forest, forest fire, land use, nonhuman
National Category
Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-60252 (URN)10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105928 (DOI)2-s2.0-85138761345 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding details: European Commission, EC, 826522; Funding details: Research Executive Agency, REA, 101003890; Funding text 1: This work was funded by the European Commission jointly by DG ECHO, project WUIVIEW (grant agreement number 826522 ) and REA project FirEUrisk (grant agreement number 101003890 ). Contributions of photographic material from various sources are gratefully acknowledged. A special thanks go to Schroeder and Wennerlund who performed a preliminary study on the Swedish WUI in their BSc thesis in 2016.

Available from: 2022-10-10 Created: 2022-10-10 Last updated: 2023-05-23Bibliographically approved
Sjöström, J. & Granström, A. (2023). Human activity and demographics drive the fire regime in a highly developed European boreal region. Fire safety journal, 136, 103743-103743, Article ID 103743.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Human activity and demographics drive the fire regime in a highly developed European boreal region
2023 (English)In: Fire safety journal, ISSN 0379-7112, E-ISSN 1873-7226, Vol. 136, p. 103743-103743, article id 103743Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Organization of successful wildfire prevention and suppression require detailed information on ignition causes, size distributions and relations to weather. From a large and highly detailed dataset of Swedish wildfire incidents (n = 124 000) we assess temporal, geographical and human-related patterns over a 25-year-period (1996–2020). We find strong positive correlations between population density and wildfire occurrence, primarily caused by a wide spectrum of human activities. However, fires >10 ha mostly occurred in sparsely populated regions and were more often ignited by lightning or heavy machinery. Further, large fires had a history of long response times and insufficient mop-up, in turn intimately linked to low population density. We detect no trend over the 25-year-period in either fire weather, number of ignitions or burned area, but a dramatic decline in wildfire caused by children's play as well as by springtime burning of dead grass, a traditional fire use in rural areas. Our results indicate that irrespective of climate change, societal changes such as rural depopulation and cultural shifts are imminently important for the future fire regime in this intensely managed part of the boreal, and may warrant more attention worldwide.

Keywords
Wildfires, human factors, fire regime
National Category
Forest Science Other Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-64219 (URN)10.1016/j.firesaf.2023.103743 (DOI)
Note

This work was funded by the Swedish Civil Contingency Agency(MSB) and European Commission project FirEUrisk (GA: 101003890)

Available from: 2023-03-10 Created: 2023-03-10 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
Granström, A., Sjöström, J. & Vylund, L. (2023). Perception of wildfire behaviour potential among Swedish incident commanders, and their fire suppression tactics revealed through tabletop exercises. International journal of wildland fire
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Perception of wildfire behaviour potential among Swedish incident commanders, and their fire suppression tactics revealed through tabletop exercises
2023 (English)In: International journal of wildland fire, ISSN 1049-8001, E-ISSN 1448-5516Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Background. Swedish wildfires are handled by multipurpose municipal rescue services, raisingquestions about how non-specialist incident commanders (ICs) perceive and interpret wildfirebehaviour. Aims. Elucidating ICs’ interpretations of fire behaviour, fuel complexes, weather,landscape structure and the role of these in tactical decisions. Methods. We exposed SwedishICs to questionnaires and tabletop exercises for different standardised fire scenarios.Key results. Despite minimal formal wildfire training, ICs showed reasonable consensus in ratingof fuels, fire behaviour, hose-lay production rates, etc. Tactics were to access the fire from thenearest road with hose-line laid from the engine and water ferried on trucks. In a scenario whereinitial attack failed, they typically fell back to roads, without burning off. This indicates a fundamental flaw in tactics employed for high-intensity fires, which easily breach forestry roads, and inviteoutflanking. Conclusions. The IC wildfire knowledge is built on personal and group experiencerather than formal education. We found reasonable competence, despite the organisations beingdesigned primarily for other purposes. However, tactical understanding of complex, large incidentswas poor. IC training should emphasise potential hazards of such incidents to enhance groupcompetence despite their low frequency. Implications. Standardised tabletop exercises canprovide insight into decision-making of ICs that is otherwise hidden.

Keywords
wildfires tactics supression
National Category
Other Civil Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-64218 (URN)10.1071/wf22085 (DOI)
Note

This research was funded by MSB, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency and the European Commission through Horizon project FirEUrisk, grant no. 101003890. 

Available from: 2023-03-10 Created: 2023-03-10 Last updated: 2023-05-25Bibliographically approved
Nadjai, A., Alam, N., Charlier, M., Vassart, O., Dai, X., Franssen, J.-M. & Sjöström, J. (2023). Travelling fire in full scale experimental building subjected to open ventilation conditions. Journal of Structural Fire Engineering, 14(2), 149-166
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Travelling fire in full scale experimental building subjected to open ventilation conditions
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2023 (English)In: Journal of Structural Fire Engineering, ISSN 2040-2317, E-ISSN 2040-2325, Vol. 14, no 2, p. 149-166Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Purpose: In the frame of the European RFCS TRAFIR project, three large compartment fire tests involving steel structure were conducted by Ulster University, aiming at understanding in which conditions a travelling fire develops, as well as how it behaves and impacts the surrounding structure. Design/methodology/approach: During the experimental programme, the path and geometry of the travelling fire was studied and temperatures, heat fluxes and spread rates were measured. Influence of the travelling fire on the structural elements was also monitored during the travelling fire tests. Findings: This paper provides details related to the influence of travelling fires on a central structural steel column. Originality/value: The experimental data are presented in terms of the gas temperatures recorded in the test compartment near the column, as well as the temperatures recorded in the steel column at different levels. Because of the large data, only fire test one results are discussed in this paper.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Emerald Group Holdings Ltd., 2023
Keywords
Compartment fires, Fire tests, Steel structure, Travelling fires, Building materials, Fires, Flammability testing, Steel construction, Condition, Design/methodology/approach, Experimental buildings, Experimental program, Gas temperature, Steel column, Structural elements, Steel structures
National Category
Basic Medicine
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-59345 (URN)10.1108/JSFE-06-2021-0037 (DOI)2-s2.0-85130291918 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding details: Research Fund for Coal and Steel, RFCS, 754198; Funding text 1: This work was carried out in the frame of the TRAFIR project with funding from the Research Fund for Coal and Steel (grant No 754198). Partners are ArcelorMittal, Liège University, the University of Edinburgh, RISE Research Institutes of Sweden and the University of Ulster. The authors also wish to acknowledge the supporting of companies Sean Timoney & Sons Ltd, FP McCann Ltd, Saverfield Ltd and Crossfire Ltd.

Available from: 2022-06-14 Created: 2022-06-14 Last updated: 2023-07-06Bibliographically approved
Honfi, D., Sjöström, J., Bedon, C. & Kozłowski, M. (2022). Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Thermo-Mechanical Behaviour of Glass Panes Exposed to Radiant Heating. Fire, 5(4), Article ID 124.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Thermo-Mechanical Behaviour of Glass Panes Exposed to Radiant Heating
2022 (English)In: Fire, ISSN 2571-6255, Vol. 5, no 4, article id 124Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Despite much research and applications, glass material and its use in buildings is still challenging for engineers due to its inherent brittleness and characteristic features such as sensitivity to stress concentrations, reduction in strength over time and from temperature, and breakage due to the stresses that may build up because of thermal gradients. This paper presents the results of an original test series carried out on monolithic glass panes with the dimensions of 500 × 500 mm2 and different thicknesses, under the exposure to radiant heating. The research study also includes a one-dimensional (1D) heat transfer model and a numerical, three-dimensional (3D) thermo-mechanical model that are used to investigate in greater detail the phenomena observed during the experiments. As shown, the behaviour of glass under radiant heating is rather complex and confirms the high vulnerability of this material for building applications. The usability and potential of thermo-mechanical numerical models is discussed towards experimental feedback. © 2022 by the authors.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI, 2022
Keywords
finite element modelling, structural fire safety, structural glass, thermo-mechanical modelling
National Category
Reliability and Maintenance
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-60154 (URN)10.3390/fire5040124 (DOI)2-s2.0-85137332895 (Scopus ID)
Note

 Funding details: VINNOVA, 2016-04218; Funding text 1: This research was carried out within the “Safe and durable timber-glass building components” project funded by Vinnova (Sweden’s Innovation Agency) via the Smart Housing Småland innovation arena for glass and wood, grant number 2016-04218. The APC was funded by C.B.

Available from: 2022-09-29 Created: 2022-09-29 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
Sjöström, J., Försth, M., Otxoterena Af Drake, P. & Svensson, R. (2022). Ignition of natural fuels from strikes between steel and rocks.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Ignition of natural fuels from strikes between steel and rocks
2022 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The ignition of natural fuels by sparks from strikes between metals and hard rock is far from understood and the ignition potential of sparks from rock strikes during heavy machinery operations is disputed in the scientific literature. This study utilises a spectrally resolved technique to study the temperature evolution of metal sparks from rock strikes. The study shows that initial temperature after collision can easily reach 1500 °C and this temperature can increase additionally by several hundred degrees as rapid oxidation processes are initiated, often leading to further disintegration of the fragment. The average temperature of fragments from such collisions is here measured to 1400 – 2000 °C and the combination of temperature, size and exothermic processes makes them viable for forest litter igniting. However, ignition on forest lands is always an unlikely, although possible outcome of heavy machinery operations and should be considered in risk assessment of the activity.

Publisher
p. 54
Series
RISE Rapport ; 2022:22
Keywords
Ignition, sparks, stone, metal, forestry, wildfire
National Category
Engineering and Technology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-62355 (URN)978-91-89561-39-7 (ISBN)
Available from: 2023-01-03 Created: 2023-01-03 Last updated: 2023-06-05Bibliographically approved
Nadjai, A., Naveed, A., Charlier, M., Vassart, O., Welsh, S., Glorieux, A. & Sjöström, J. (2022). Large scale fire test: The development of a travelling fire in open ventilation conditions and its influence on the surrounding steel structure. Fire safety journal, 130, Article ID 103575.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Large scale fire test: The development of a travelling fire in open ventilation conditions and its influence on the surrounding steel structure
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2022 (English)In: Fire safety journal, ISSN 0379-7112, E-ISSN 1873-7226, Vol. 130, article id 103575Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In the frame of the European RFCS-TRAFIR project, natural fire tests in large compartment were conducted by Ulster University, involving steel structure and aiming at understanding the conditions in which a travelling fire develops, how it behaves and impacts the surrounding structure. During the experimental programme, the path and geometry of the travelling fire was studied and temperatures, heat fluxes and spread rates were measured. The experimental data is presented in terms of gas temperatures recorded in the test compartment at different positions and levels. The influence of the travelling fire on the surround structure is presented in terms of the temperatures recorded in the selected steel columns and beams. The temperatures in the test compartment were dependent on the positioning of the travelling fire band as well as the height from the floor level. The non-uniform temperatures in the compartment lead to transient heating of the nearby structural steel elements, resulting in a reduction of their resistance which may influence the global structural stability. The results obtained will help to understand the behaviour of travelling fires and their influence on the structural members. This knowledge will help to reduce the travelling fire associated risks in future. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd, 2022
Keywords
Large-scale compartment tests, Natural fire tests, Steel structure, Travelling fire tests, Building materials, Flammability testing, Stability, Steel construction, Steel structures, Steel testing, Condition, Fire tests, Large scale fire tests, Large-scale compartment test, Large-scales, Natural fire, Natural fire test, Traveling fire test, Travelling fires, Fires
National Category
Other Engineering and Technologies
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-59222 (URN)10.1016/j.firesaf.2022.103575 (DOI)2-s2.0-85128242384 (Scopus ID)
Note

 Funding details: University of Edinburgh, ED; Funding details: Ulster University, UU; Funding details: Research Fund for Coal and Steel, RFCS, 754198; Funding text 1: This work was carried out in the frame of the TRAFIR project with funding from the Research Fund for Coal and Steel (grant N?754198). Partners are ArcelorMittal, Li?ge University, the University of Edinburgh, RISE Research Institutes of Sweden and the University of Ulster. The authors also wish to acknowledge the supporting of companies Sean Timoney & Sons Ltd, FP McCann Ltd, Saverfield Ltd and Crossfire Ltd.; Funding text 2: This work was carried out in the frame of the TRAFIR project with funding from the Research Fund for Coal and Steel (grant N°754198 ). Partners are ArcelorMittal, Liège University, the University of Edinburgh, RISE Research Institutes of Sweden and the University of Ulster. The authors also wish to acknowledge the supporting of companies Sean Timoney & Sons Ltd, FP McCann Ltd, Saverfield Ltd and Crossfire Ltd.

Available from: 2022-06-02 Created: 2022-06-02 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0001-8670-062x

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