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Zetterholm, J., Mossberg, J., Jafri, Y. & Wetterlund, E. (2022). We need stable, long-term policy support! — Evaluating the economic rationale behind the prevalent investor lament for forest-based biofuel production. Applied Energy, 318, Article ID 119044.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>We need stable, long-term policy support! — Evaluating the economic rationale behind the prevalent investor lament for forest-based biofuel production
2022 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 318, article id 119044Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Uncertain and unstable policy support has often been claimed to be a major cause of the slower than expected deployment of technologies for production of advanced biofuels. We investigate the economic rationale of this claim by applying a real options framework incorporating uncertainties regarding energy prices, investment costs, and prevalence of policy support, in terms of an economic support per produced unit of biofuel depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential. Six industrially relevant forest-based technologies for production of drop-in biofuels were evaluated. The technologies were integrated with a pulp mill and an oil refinery and are at different stages of their technical development. The results show that there is a limited economic rationale behind the claim that policy uncertainties are a major source for the stalled deployment of forest-based biorefinery technologies. Only technologies that require very high policy support to become economically viable, with associated low likeliness of investment, showed any significant sensitivity to the policy uncertainty. The results show that the stalled deployment is mainly related to the uncertainties regarding investment costs and future energy prices — and not related to the specific policy uncertainty. The results show that the stalled deployment is mainly related to the uncertainties regarding investment costs and future energy prices. This results in technologies with lower sensitivity with respect to these uncertainties have a larger chance of becoming commercially relevant investment options. The findings show that reduced policy uncertainty will neither lead to earlier investments nor improve the commercial viability of emerging biorefinery technologies. Literature citing policy uncertainty as the main hindrance for commercial deployment cannot do so from an economic perspective without simultaneously investigating the impacts from investment cost and market price uncertainties. Additionally we find that if policy support is intended to promote investment in technologies with high GHG performance, it must be directed specifically to these technologies, otherwise, it is more beneficial to invest in technologies with more favourable conditions for investment and operational costs, but lower GHG performance. © 2022 The Authors

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd, 2022
Keywords
Drop-in biofuels, Integration, Pulp mill, Real options, Uncertainty
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-59211 (URN)10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119044 (DOI)2-s2.0-85129765573 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding details: Energimyndigheten, 39740-1; Funding text 1: This work was carried out under the auspices of Forskarskolan Energisystem, financed by the Swedish Energy Agency, Sweden (project No. 39740-1 ). Additional support from Bio4Energy, Sweden is also gratefully acknowledged.

Available from: 2022-06-10 Created: 2022-06-10 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
Mossberg, J., Söderholm, P. & Frishammar, J. (2021). Challenges of sustainable industrial transformation: Swedish biorefinery development and incumbents in the emerging biofuels industry. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, 15(5), 1264-1280
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Challenges of sustainable industrial transformation: Swedish biorefinery development and incumbents in the emerging biofuels industry
2021 (English)In: Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, ISSN 1932-104X, E-ISSN 1932-1031, Vol. 15, no 5, p. 1264-1280Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper investigates the transformation challenges related to incumbent industries caused by technology development and industry convergence in the transition to a bioeconomy in the context of Swedish biorefinery development. It involves the emergence of new value chains and several incumbent industries such as the pulp and paper industry, the oil refinery sector, the chemical process industry, and the heat and power sector. In 2019, Sweden had Europe's largest share of biofuels in the transport sector, roughly 20% on an energy basis, and this share has increased by around 300% during the last decade. At the same time, domestic production has stalled, and even though Sweden has beneficial conditions for biofuel production, the share of biofuel that is imported or based on imported feedstock has recently ranged between 85% and 90%. We discuss three transformation challenges: (i) inertia and lack of absorptive capacity creating lock-in effects at the organizational level; (ii) weak and inefficient actor networks at the industry level; and (iii) contradictory policy instrument mixes and lack of coordination at the government level. The findings underscore the need for policy integration and alignment across various policy domains, and an increased focus on policy mixes that can stimulate the emergence of more disruptive innovations and value chains. There is also a need for industrial initiatives, such as improving absorptive capacity and strengthening actor networks, to help build the value chains needed to realize a sustainable bioeconomy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2021
Keywords
bioeconomy, biofuels, biorefinery, incumbent industries, industrial transformation, sustainable technological change, Sweden, Bioproducts, Chemical industry, Paper and pulp industry, Paper and pulp mills, Refining, Biorefinery development, Chemical process industry, Disruptive innovations, Industrial transformations, Industry convergence, Organizational levels, Pulp and paper industry, Technology development, Petroleum industry
National Category
Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-53531 (URN)10.1002/bbb.2249 (DOI)2-s2.0-85106993667 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding details: Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas; Funding details: Energimyndigheten; Funding text 1: Financial support from the Swedish Research Council Formas and the Swedish Energy Agency is gratefully acknowledged, as are valuable comments from three external reviewers. Any remaining errors reside solely with the authors.

Available from: 2021-06-17 Created: 2021-06-17 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
Jafri, Y., Wetterlund, E., Mesfun, S., Rådberg, H., Mossberg, J., Hulteberg, C. & Furusjö, E. (2020). Combining expansion in pulp capacity with production of sustainable biofuels – Techno-economic and greenhouse gas emissions assessment of drop-in fuels from black liquor part-streams. Applied Energy, 279, Article ID 115879.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Combining expansion in pulp capacity with production of sustainable biofuels – Techno-economic and greenhouse gas emissions assessment of drop-in fuels from black liquor part-streams
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2020 (English)In: Applied Energy, ISSN 0306-2619, E-ISSN 1872-9118, Vol. 279, article id 115879Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Drop-in biofuels from forest by-products such as black liquor can help deliver deep reductions in transport greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels in our vehicle fleet. Black liquor is produced at pulp mills that can increase their pulping capacity by upgrading some of it to drop-in biofuels but this is not well-studied. We evaluate the techno-economic and greenhouse gas performance of five drop-in biofuel pathways based on BL lignin separation with hydrotreatment or black liquor gasification with catalytic synthesis. We also assess how integrated biofuel production impacts different types of pulp mills and a petroleum refinery by using energy and material balances assembled from experimental data supplemented by expert input. Our results indicate that drop-in biofuels from black liquor part-streams can be produced for ~80 EUR2017/MWh, which puts black liquor on the same footing (or better) as comparable forest residue-based alternatives. The best pathways in both production routes have comparable costs and their principal biofuel products (petrol for black liquor gasification and diesel for lignin hydrotreatment) complement each other. All pathways surpass European Union's sustainability criteria for greenhouse gas savings from new plants. Supplementing black liquor with pyrolysis oil or electrolysis hydrogen can improve biofuel production potentials and feedstock diversity, but better economic performance does not accompany these benefits. Fossil hydrogen represents the cheaper option for lignin hydrotreatment by some margin, but greenhouse gas savings from renewable hydrogen are nearly twice as great. Research on lignin upgrading in industrial conditions is recommended for reducing the presently significant performance uncertainties. © 2020 The Authors

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd, 2020
Keywords
Biofuels, Black liquor, Gasification, Hydrotreatment, Lignin, Pulp, Drops, Fleet operations, Forestry, Fossil fuels, Gas emissions, Gasoline, Greenhouse gases, Industrial research, Petroleum refineries, Biofuel production, Black liquor gasification, Catalytic synthesis, Economic performance, Industrial conditions, Material balance, Renewable hydrogens, Sustainability criteria, biofuel, economic analysis, electrokinesis, energy conservation, greenhouse gas, hydrogen, pyrolysis, sustainability
National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-49466 (URN)10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115879 (DOI)2-s2.0-85091666946 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding details: Energimyndigheten; Funding text 1: This work was supported by the Swedish Energy Agency , f3 – Swedish Knowledge Centre for Renewable Transportation Fuels, and Bio4Energy .

Available from: 2020-10-21 Created: 2020-10-21 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
Mossberg, J., Frishammar, J., Söderholm, P. & Hellsmark, H. (2020). Managerial and organizational challenges encountered in the development of sustainable technology: Analysis of Swedish biorefinery pilot and demonstration plants. Journal of Cleaner Production, 276, Article ID 124150.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Managerial and organizational challenges encountered in the development of sustainable technology: Analysis of Swedish biorefinery pilot and demonstration plants
2020 (English)In: Journal of Cleaner Production, ISSN 0959-6526, E-ISSN 1879-1786, Vol. 276, article id 124150Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Pilot and demonstration plants (PDPs) perform critical tasks in the development of new sustainable technology by bridging basic knowledge generation and large-scale commercialization. Significant private and public funding has therefore been allocated to PDPs addressing climate change, pollution abatement technology and/or increased resource efficiency. After technology verification, PDPs typically struggle with evolving objectives, and reports of stalled or delayed development are common. Key problems may center on technical difficulties, but challenges of a non-technical nature are equally important, not least for the development of clean technology. This paper draws on a longitudinal case study of four PDPs used for advanced biorefinery technology development in Sweden and delineates the key managerial and organizational challenges that arise in and around such plants. By taking the actor networks around PDPs as the main unit of analysis, this paper gives a detailed description of various challenges, such as the division of responsibility for the operation and ownership of the PDPs, unclear roles and objectives, and the lack of specific competences and resources in the actor networks. One important conclusion is that improved knowledge about such challenges should increase the resilience of actor networks in and around PDPs, and also help shorten the formative phase of developing sustainable technology. © 2020 The Authors

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier Ltd, 2020
Keywords
Bioeconomy, Managerial challenges, Organizational challenges, Pilot and demonstration plants, Sustainable technology, Technology development, Climate change, Managers, Demonstration plants, Knowledge generations, Longitudinal case study, Resource efficiencies, Technical difficulties, Technology verification, Refining
National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-49463 (URN)10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124150 (DOI)2-s2.0-85091561054 (Scopus ID)
Note

Funding details: Svenska ForskningsrÃ¥det Formas, 254-2013-100; Funding text 1: Financial support from the Swedish Research Council Formas (Grant No. 254-2013-100 ) is gratefully acknowledged, as are comments from three anonymous reviewers and the journal’s editor. Any errors are the sole responsibility of the authors.

Available from: 2020-10-21 Created: 2020-10-21 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
Frishammar, J., Söderholm, P., Hellsmark, H. & Mossberg, J. (2019). A Knowledge-based Perspective on System Weaknesses in Technological Innovation Systems. Science and Public Policy, 46(1), 55-70
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Knowledge-based Perspective on System Weaknesses in Technological Innovation Systems
2019 (English)In: Science and Public Policy, ISSN 0302-3427, E-ISSN 1471-5430, Vol. 46, no 1, p. 55-70Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The literature on technological innovation systems (TIS) provides policymakers and other actors with a scheme of analysis to identify system weaknesses. In doing so, TIS analysis centres on which system weaknesses policy interventions should target to promote further development of a particular system. However, prior TIS literature has not sufficiently elaborated on what may constitute the conceptual roots of a ‘weakness’. We apply a knowledge-based perspective and propose that many—albeit not all—system weaknesses may root in four types of knowledge problems: uncertainty, complexity, equivocality, and ambiguity. Employing these as sensitizing concepts, we study system weaknesses by analysing data from a biorefinery TIS in Sweden. This analysis results in novel implications for the TIS literature and for achieving a better match between system weaknesses and the design of innovation policies.

National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-33997 (URN)10.1093/scipol/scy037 (DOI)2-s2.0-85062499488 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2018-07-03 Created: 2018-07-03 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
Zetterholm, J., Mossberg, J., Lundgren, J. & Wetterlund, E. (2019). Evaluating investments in integrated biofuel production - Factoring in uncertainty through real options analysis. In: ECOS 2019 - Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems: . Paper presented at 32nd International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems, ECOS 2019, 23 June 2019 through 28 June 2019 (pp. 1911-1922). Institute of Thermal Technology
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Evaluating investments in integrated biofuel production - Factoring in uncertainty through real options analysis
2019 (English)In: ECOS 2019 - Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems, Institute of Thermal Technology , 2019, p. 1911-1922Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

In the endeavour to reduce CO2 emissions from the transport sector, biofuels from forest industry by-products are key. The adaptation of forest-based biorefinery technologies has so far been low which can partly be attributed to uncertainties in the form of policy instability, market prices, and technology costs. These uncertainties in combination with technology learning, which can be expected to reduce future investment costs, could make it favourable to postpone an investment decision. When applying real options theory, it is recognised that there is an opportunity cost associated with the decision to invest, since the option to wait for more favourable market conditions to occur is forfeited. In traditional discounted cash flow analysis, the impact of uncertainty and the value of reducing it (e.g. by waiting), is usually not taken into consideration. This paper uses a real options framework that incorporates the option to postpone an investment to reduce market uncertainties and wait for technology learning to occur. The focus is to investigate how the usage of an investment decision rule based on real options analysis affects technology choice, the economic performance, and when in time it is favourable to invest in pulp mill integrated biofuel production, compared with using a decision rule based on traditional discounted cash flow analysis. As an illustrative case study we examine a pulp mill which has the option, but not the obligation, to invest in either of two different biofuel production technologies that both use the pulp mill by-product black liquor as feedstock: (1) black liquor gasification followed by fuel synthesis, and (2) membrane separation of lignin followed by hydrodeoxygenation. With the usage of the real options framework and the inclusion of the uncertainties regarding future market prices and investment costs, the decision to invest is made later, compared with using traditional cash flow analysis. The usage of real options also reduces the likeliness of a net loss occurring if an investment is made, as well as increases the expected economic returns, showing the added economic value of flexibility in the face of uncertain future conditions. .

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Thermal Technology, 2019
Keywords
Integrated biofuel production, Pulp mill, Real options, Techno-economic analysis, Uncertainty
National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-44397 (URN)2-s2.0-85079635479 (Scopus ID)9788361506515 (ISBN)
Conference
32nd International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems, ECOS 2019, 23 June 2019 through 28 June 2019
Note

Funding details: Energimyndigheten; Funding details: Svenska ForskningsrÃ¥det Formas; Funding text 1: The work has been carried out under the auspices of Forskarskola Energisystem financed by the Swedish Energy Agency. Financial support from Bio4Energy, a strategic research environment appointed by the Swedish government, and the Swedish Research Council Formas are also gratefullyacknowledged.

Available from: 2020-03-09 Created: 2020-03-09 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
Söderholm, P., Hellsmark, H., Frishammar, J., Hansson, J., Mossberg, J. & Sandström, A. (2019). Technological development for sustainability: The role of network management in the innovation policy mix. Technological forecasting & social change, 138, 309-323
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Technological development for sustainability: The role of network management in the innovation policy mix
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2019 (English)In: Technological forecasting & social change, ISSN 0040-1625, E-ISSN 1873-5509, Vol. 138, p. 309-323Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Despite the key role of actor networks in progressing new sustainable technologies, there is a shortage of conceptual knowledge on how policy can help strengthen collaborative practices in such networks. The objective of this paper is to analyze the roles of such policies – so-called network management – throughout the entire technological development processes. The analysis draws on the public management and sustainability transitions literatures, and discusses how various network characteristics could affect the development of sustainable technologies, including how different categories of network management strategies could be deployed to influence actor collaborations. The paper's main contribution is an analytical framework that addresses the changing roles of network management at the interface between various phases of the technological development process, illustrated with the empirical case of advanced biorefinery technology development in Sweden. Furthermore, the analysis also addresses some challenges that policy makers are likely to encounter when pursuing network management strategies, and identifies a number of negative consequences of ignoring such instruments in the innovation policy mix. The latter include inefficient actor role-taking, the emergence of small, ineffective and competing actor networks in similar technological fields, and a shortage of interpretative knowledge.

Keywords
sustainable development, innovation policy, network management, biorefinery technology
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-36293 (URN)10.1016/j.techfore.2018.10.010 (DOI)2-s2.0-85056403634 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2018-11-15 Created: 2018-11-15 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
Mossberg, J., Karlsson, A. & Thomtén, M. (2015). 4C – The Collaborative Chemistry Cluster Case Study: Summerande slutrapport av Energimyndighetens projekt 348 48-1. (ed.).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>4C – The Collaborative Chemistry Cluster Case Study: Summerande slutrapport av Energimyndighetens projekt 348 48-1.
2015 (English)Report (Refereed)
Series
SP Rapport, ISSN 0284-5172 ; 2015:35
National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-5264 (URN)23872 (Local ID)978-91-88001-63-4 (ISBN)23872 (Archive number)23872 (OAI)
Available from: 2016-09-07 Created: 2016-09-07 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
Mossberg, J., Hackl, R., Harvey, S. P., Jensen, C., Sandoff, A., Schaad, G., . . . Haggärde, M. (2014). Bridging barriers for multi-party investments in energy efficiency – A real options based approach for common utility systems design and evaluation (ed.). In: Proceedings of ECEEE industrial summer study, 2014: . Paper presented at ECEEE industrial summer study, 2-5 June, 2014, Arnhem, the Netherlands. (pp. 411-422). , 2
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Bridging barriers for multi-party investments in energy efficiency – A real options based approach for common utility systems design and evaluation
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2014 (English)In: Proceedings of ECEEE industrial summer study, 2014, 2014, Vol. 2, p. 411-422Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Total Site Analysis (TSA) is a tool for quantifying energy savings targets in large industrial process clusters. Thereafter retrofit design tools can be used to identify efficient solutions in which the different process sites exchange excess energy with each other through the site utility system, thus reducing the overall need for external fuels/energy. Compared to energy efficiency investments identified for single companies, similar investments identified for clusters hold an inherent complexity; they assume joint investments and multi-party collaboration, which often constitute a barrier for implementation. Real Options Analysis (ROA) is a tool that can be used for helping managers to evaluate different investment options. However, previous research almost exclusively concerns single companies/actors and not the increased complexity of joint investments. This paper presents a novel approach, showing how ROA can be applied not only to handle uncertainties regarding market development but also reduce complexity associated with multiparty cooperation in a joint energy efficiency investments based on TSA. The approachis applied on a case study of a joint energy efficiency retrofit investment in a Swedish chemical cluster. Using ROA, the case study shows how the identified solution can divided into “investment packages” distributed over time, allowing for an initial investment by only two actors and permitting for an evaluation of both the cooperation and the market development before expanding the investment and the number of actors involved. Further, an economic assessment of the project is presented together with an analysis of the cost/ benefit of gradually expanding the investment.

National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-12391 (URN)2-s2.0-85045458278 (Scopus ID)18855 (Local ID)18855 (Archive number)18855 (OAI)
Conference
ECEEE industrial summer study, 2-5 June, 2014, Arnhem, the Netherlands.
Note

Paper No. 4-017-14

Available from: 2016-09-13 Created: 2016-09-13 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
Hellsmark, H., Mossberg, J. & Ulmanen, J. (2014). Teknologiska innovationssystem inom energiområdet: En praktisk vägledning till identifiering av systemsvagheter som motiverar särskilda politiska åtaganden (ed.).
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Teknologiska innovationssystem inom energiområdet: En praktisk vägledning till identifiering av systemsvagheter som motiverar särskilda politiska åtaganden
2014 (Swedish)Report (Refereed)
Series
Rapport Energimyndigheten.
National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:ri:diva-5638 (URN)20369 (Local ID)20369 (Archive number)20369 (OAI)
Available from: 2016-09-08 Created: 2016-09-08 Last updated: 2023-05-22Bibliographically approved
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Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-1820-0505

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